The Result

Well the 2014 running of the Grand National has restored my faith in the trends somewhat, if not in my own personal judgement!  Six of the first eight horses home appeared on the final list of 11 horses that qualified on the trends, including the first three places - so not a bad result at all...

While Balthazar King ran a fantastic race to finish best of my personal picks, giving me yet another runner up, it proved to be Pineau De Re who ticked all the right boxes for a Grand National winner. Although something of a dark horse leading up to the race, he was quietly fancied by some shrewd judges (if not me!) and started at 25/1.

Trained by Dr Richard Newland, who handles just a small string of horses as a part time hobby, he was purchased last May after winning the Ulster National over 3m 4f.  And that proven stamina was the key to success once again.  The first four horses had all won over a minimum trip of 3m 1f, with the first and second having victories over three and a half miles plus already under their belts (as did fourth placed Alvarado).

Let's take a closer look at the profile of the winner, measured against the key trends:

√ Weight under 11st 1lb - carried 10st 6lb
√ Rated between 138 and 153 - rated 142
√ Aged between nine and elevent - 11 years old
√ Winner over minimum of three miles, one furlong - won over 3m 4f
√ Winner of a Class 1 or Class 2 chase - yes
√ Winner of a chase with 10+ runners - yes, 15 runners
√ Had at least 10 runs over fences - 14 chase runs
√ Ran within the last 56 days - last run 23 days ago
√ Between 3 and 6 runs since end of August - six runs
√ Finished placed this season - placed three times including one win
√ Placed form in a National or at Aintree / Cheltenham Festivals - won Ulster National and 3rd in Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival

The final prep race for the National may seem a bit unorthodox, but Pineau De Re actually ran in the same handicap hurdle where Don't Push It was pulled up prior to his Aintree success.  He ran a fantastic race in third place, which was the first time I sat up and took notice of the horse, placing a bet on him for the Grand National at 50/1.  Pineau De Re wasn't really on my radar until then as I had written off his chances after he fell in the Becher Chase back in the autumn.

But that experience appears to have paid dividends.  Yet again, the winner of the Grand National had won another 'National' race, had previously run over the famous Aintree fences, and had finished placed in one of the two major jump racing Festivals.  So the clues were certainly there for all to see.

Of course it's always so easy in hindsight and there were plenty of others who were more strongly fancied but failed to deliver.  Nevertheless, it's amazing how many trends held true this year - you can forget the top weight, previous Gold Cup winners, previous Grand National placed horses, any horse carrying more than 11st 1lb or rated higher than 153 etc.

In fact, of the 18 finishers, only Rocky Creek in 5th (a valiant effort for one so inexperienced) and Hunt Ball way back in 17th carried more than 10st 12lb.  This echoes last year's result, where only one horse carrying over 10st 11lb finished in the first eleven places.  So perhaps the natural order has been restored and after four years that featured the heavier weights on 11st plus (2009 to 2012) the pendulum has swung back in favour of horses at the bottom end of the handicap.  Six of the first 10 horses home actually carried 10st 6lb or less.

It is perhaps notable that 12 out of the last 16 winners were all rated between 136 and 144, just an eight pound margin.  The exceptions were the four years mentioned above.  And in terms of weight, a total of 17 winners since 1990 have now carried between 10st 3lb and 10st 12lb to victory, just a nine pound margin. That equates to a pretty impressive strike rate of 71%.

As always it pays to be flexible when it comes to the trends, and there's no room for complacency, but the results from the last two years do appear to have seen a return to the norm.  One obvious exception is the recent record of French bred horses, who now account for three of the last six winners (including 100/1 winner Mon Mome, who ticked every other box), so that is one age old trend that has been well and truly busted.

So the Grand National trends blog has earned another stay of execution and lives to fight another day. I hope you enjoyed reading it and thanks to everyone for the positive comments and feedback. Hopefully a few of you managed to make some money on the big race yesterday, even if I didn't personally pinpoint the winner!

Until the same time next year...

Personal Picks

As is now a traditional part of this Grand National blog, for my final post I reveal my own personal picks to see how they compare with the trends.  They don't always agree - but when there is an overlap between the two lists it has been a pretty good indicator in recent times, pinpointing at least two placed horses in each of the past three years.

There's always a story, even occasionally an incredible fairytale (like Bob Champion and Aldaniti that got me hooked) and that's the beauty of the race.  So my own personal picks often fly in the face of trends logic; sometimes you just have to inject a bit of your own emotion and subjective judgement in there too!

Here's a complete run down of the nine contenders I think should be seriously considered for the 2014 Grand National (in handicap order):

Tidal Bay - current best odds 18/1
This one might be a bit of a shock inclusion, as I very rarely have the top weight in my personal picks - and especially a 13 year old like Tidal Bay!  There are good reasons to oppose him on the trends, but the handicapper has given him every chance.  He is effectively 7lb 'well in' so should not be disadvantaged by his welter burden and seems to be as spritely as ever, finishing a close 3rd in the Welsh National and runner-up in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup.

One of these days a top weight will win again - and it could well be this year.  The compressed handicap and softer fences should in theory make it easier to carry large weights around the four and a half mile trip, although I suspect he may still find or or two too good in a driving finish round the elbow.

Long Run - current best odds 12/1
It's not often you see a former Gold Cup and dual King George winner line-up in the Grand National, especially one that is still only nine years old, so you have to pay maximum respect when you get a horse of this class participating in the Grand National.  The trends might tell you that L'Escargot was the last Gold Cup hero to do the double almost forty years ago, but again the handicapper has been lenient on Long Run. His weight of 11st 9lb may be heavier than any winner since Red Rum, but his current rating of 160 is up to 22lb below his best form.

Long Run does have a tendency to be low and quick at his fences, but that will not matter as much now with the modified obstacles.  His jockey, Sam Waley Cohen, has the best record over these fences, having won the Foxhunters Chase three times (twice runner up), as well as a Topham Chase, and he has also finished in the first five in the Grand National on three out of four occasions (2nd, 4th & 5th).  If he gets round, a big run looks likely.

Balthazar King - current best odds 20/1
This horse is a really likeable sort and comes here in great heart having won all four starts so far this season. Three of those victories have come in Cross Country Chases, which would be an unusual route for a Grand National winner, although 2007 hero Silver Birch did finish runner-up in the same event that Balthazar King won at Cheltenham last month.  Philip Hobbs had a tremendous Festival and will have high hopes of going one better than he achieved with his 2002 Grand National runner-up What's Up Boys.

There might be a question mark over whether this comes too soon after his Cheltenham exertions, but other horses to have run at the Festival have done well so far this week at Aintree.  He will need to improve on his 15th place in this race last year though, which wouldn't give too much encouragement for his backers.  This year's race will be run in similar conditions and ideally he would want the ground to be faster.

Teaforthree - current best odds 10/1 favourite
There should be no surprise to see Teaforthree high on my personal shortlist as this was my main tip for last year's race.  At one stage it looked like we would get a win, but the horse just tired in the closing stages before fading into third.  Carrying 5lb less this year, he should be right up there at the climax again if he is more conservatively ridden.  Amberleigh House finished third in the National the year before his memorable win in 2004, so hopefully lightning can strike twice.

A winner at the Cheltenham Festival over four miles and runner up in the 2012 Welsh National, his stamina is assured, and although he could only finish 9th at Chepstow in the 2013 renewal and 8th in the Gold Cup last time out, this has been the target all season.  Finishing unplaced in the Gold Cup was no barrier to success for Aintree heroes Rhyme N' Reason and Miinnehoma so hopefully the same is true for Teaforthree this year!

Monbeg Dude - current best odds 14/1
The Welsh National has been probably the best guide to the big race at Aintree over the years, with five Grand National winners having won or finished placed in the Chepstow marathon since 1998, so I make no apology for putting five such horses on my own short list this year.  Monbeg Dude just got the better of Teaforthree in a thrilling finish to the 2012 renewal and has been aimed at this race ever since.  He won a valuable Grade Three Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in December and looks to be the ideal type for Aintree.  Some question his jumping ability, but he has only unseated his rider once in eleven chase starts to date and looks to still be improving. On an ideal weight of 10st 9lb, a bold bid is predicted.

Big Shu - current best odds 25/1
If we include Balthazar King on the shortlist, then we have to also feature Big Shu, who won the Cross Country Chase over 3m 7f at Cheltenham at last year's Festival before finishing a close third this year.  He ended last season with victory in the La Touche Cup over 4m 1f at Punchestown, which means that he actually has success over the furthest distance of the 40 runners due to line up on Saturday. Whether that form is good enough is anyone's guess, but I'm going for proven stamina as the main determining factor in all of my selections this year.  Big Shu was only dismissed from the trends on the basis of having only two runs this season, but that was good enough for Miinnehoma, so why not this horse too?

Mountainous - current best odds 50/1
I have no idea whatsoever why Mountainous is available at such massive odds as I think he has a huge chance tomorrow.  He won the Welsh National this season by a head over Hawkes Point and deserves to be 20/1 or less for this.  Admittedly that victory was on heavy ground and he is weighted up to that new mark now, but he looks another that is still improving and at nine years old has the ideal profile. Mountainous missed the trends shortlist due to only having nine runs over fences, but that's not good enough reason for me. Providing the ground isn't too fast he could spring a surprise and run into the frame at a big price.

Chance Du Roy - current best odds 33/1
Another forgotten horse is Chance Du Roy, who won this season's Becher Chase in fine style but has barely been mentioned since.  This race has been the target all season since he beat a field of 22 over these famous National fences in the autumn, including six of the rivals he will face tomorrow, as well as a certain horse called On His Own, who finished runner-up in this year's Gold Cup.  In fact the 3rd, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th & 11th placed horses all subsequently won, so this form looks rock solid.  We have seen time and again that experience over these fences can be invaluable and Chance Du Roy looks excellent value to emulate the likes of Amberleigh House and Silver Birch by following up in the big one.

Hawkes Point - current best odds 50/1
Obviously this year's Welsh National form isn't rated highly at all, but I don't see any reason why Teaforthree and Monbeg Dude should be so short in the betting with this year's 1st and 2nd available at five times the price - especially as both of them beat Tidal Bay in third place!  That form looks as good as anything else on offer in this race and therefore Hawkes Point has to be included in my personal picks despite his inexperience.  Like Tidal Bay, he is trained by Paul Nicholls, who won the race with Neptune Collonges, but he seems to be the least fancied of the Ditcheat trio.  I take no notice of that and he is another horse that could prove to be great each way value.

Such is the wide-open nature of this year's race that there are at least another half dozen 'bubbling under' that have 'National' form to their names who I also rate, including Munster National winner Double Seven, former Irish National winner Lion Na Bearnai and Ulster National winner Pineau De Re.

The two horses that won the Listed Handicap Chase won by Don't Push It en route to Aintree glory, Battle Group and Prince De Beauchene also warrant respect, especially as the latter has been well fancied for this race for the last two years until having to pull out at the eleventh hour due to injury.  On form, you'd also have to throw The Package and Alvarado in the mix too as their best races this season have worked out very well.

But going back to the selections above, there are just four horses that appear on both my personal and trends lists: BALTHAZAR KING, TEAFORTHREE, MONBEG DUDE and CHANCE DU ROY. Factoring in the weights, form and other key stats, they would have to be the five star selections for this year.  It's almost impossible to split them, but if pushed I will go with the following finishing order:

1st - Teaforthree
2nd - Monbeg Dude
3rd - Chance Du Roy

4th - Balthazar King

The final places can be fought out between the classy pair of Tidal Bay or Long Run, with either Mountainous or Hawkes Point outperforming their odds to make the top six at a big price.

Remember to bet with a bookmaker that offers a quarter the odds each way for the first FIVE places at least.  If you bet with Bet 365 they will give you half of your stake back (up to a maximum of £125) as well as match best prices from 10.00am on Saturday with Best Odds Guaranteed.  So I would highly recommend that you open an account with them if you haven't already placed your bets (and no, I'm not on commission!).  Bet Victor are the only firm offering each way on six places.

Thank you for reading my blog.  If I don't win this year it may well prove to be the last...  Whatever the outcome enjoy the race and good luck!

Trends Shortlist

It's Grand National Eve and time for the annual unveiling of the trends shortlist. As I've already stated the 2014 renewal is one of the most competitive I can remember, so it's no real surprise to see that a total of eleven horses tick every single one of these boxes:

√ Weight under 11st 1lb
√ Rated between 138 and 153
√ Aged between eight and twelve
√ Winner over minimum of three miles, one furlong
√ Winner of a Class 1 or Class 2 chase
√ Had at least 10 runs over fences
√ Ran within the last 56 days
√ Between 3 and 6 runs since August
√ Finished placed this season
√ Placed form in a National or at Aintree / Cheltenham Festivals

So here they are: according to the trends the winner of the 2014 Grand National will come from the following group of eleven contenders (with details of their best qualifying form):

Balthazar King - dual winner of the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham, current odds 20/1
Wayward Prince - winner of a Listed Chase over 3m 1f at Aintree, current odds 66/1
Teaforthree - winner of the NH Chase over 4m at Cheltenham, current odds 8/1 favourite
Across The Bay - winner of the Last Fling Chase over 3m 4f at Haydock, current odds 50/1
Double Seven - winner of the Munster National over 3m at Limerick, current odds 14/1
Lion Na Bearnai - winner of the Irish National over 3m 5f at Fairyhouse, current odds 33/1
Monbeg Dude - winner of the Welsh National over 3m 5 1/2f at Chepstow, current odds 12/1
Burton Port - winner of a Grade Two Novice Chase over 3m 1f at Aintree, current odds 20/1
Chance Du Roy - winner of the Becher Chase over 3m 2f at Aintree, current odds 33/1
Pineau De Re - winner of the Ulster National over 3m 4f at Downpatrick, current odds 20/1
Raz De Maree - winner of the Cork National over 3m 4f, current odds 50/1

As you can see there are some obvious contenders here, but equally some really interesting dark horses available at juicy prices.  With winners at 33/1 twice, 66/1 and 100/1 since 2007 I certainly wouldn't discount any of them.

Strictly speaking Double Seven has question marks on the trends; he is only eight years old and his best winning form came over three miles. But with 16 runs under his belt (including four wins in double digit fields) and the assistance of AP McCoy in the saddle it would be foolish to dismiss him on age alone.

Likewise Lion Na Bearnai is outside of the ideal age range at 12 years old.  However, he is a former Irish National winner and quite lightly raced for a veteran with only 15 chase runs, so it is impossible to reject him on this basis.

The only horse in this group of ten who has not had winning form in a National or at Aintree / Cheltenham is Across The Bay, although he has run with credit in many of the trial races that produce Grand National winners and has finished placed on more than one occasion at Aintree, including a third place in the Grade One Aintree Hurdle. Trained by Donald McCain, who won the Grand National with Ballabriggs in 2011, he is another who is a borderline case, but just sneaks in.

The Aintree win for Wayward Prince was in December, not at the Grand National meeting, so this should really count against him.  But again, as he is proven at the course and ticks every other box he remains on the trends shortlist.

But if we return to the Staying Power section of this blog, which highlighted the stats around the six key races for the Grand National, there are four horses that stand out:

Teaforthree
Monbeg Dude
Lion Na Bearnai
Chance Du Roy

It is the form of the 2012 Welsh National that is particularly interesting, especially as Teaforthree subsequently went on to finish third in last year's race.  That makes him a worthy favourite for this year's renewal, and he races off a weight that is five pounds lower than last year on 10st 12lb.  He was the five star tip in last year's blog and looked likely to win before running out of steam aound the elbow.  If held up a little longer this year to conserve his energy, he has every chance of improving on that placing this year.

His Chepstow conqueror, Monbeg Dude, has been aimed at this race all season and it would be great if trainer Michael Scudamore could emulate his Grandfather by winning the big race (he rode Oxo to success in 1959) and get one up on his father Peter who never managed to add the National to his illustrious CV.  He looks to have had the ideal preparation and races off a nice weight of 10st 9lb.  He will have the assistance of Paul Carberry in the saddle, who won this race on board Bobbyjo in 1999.

Chance Du Roy has largely been forgotten since winning the Becher Chase over these famous fences in the autumn. Trained by Philip Hobbs, who had a tremendous Cheltenham Festival, he beat several of Saturday's rivals including Mr Moonshine, Swing Bill, Across The Bay, Rose Of The Moon and Pineau De Re that day. The Becher Chase was won by two Grand National winners in the last decade, Amberleigh House and Silver Birch (as well as dual placed horse Clan Royal), so this form cannot be ignored.

An honourable mention must also go to Balthazar King, who has looked better than ever in Cross Country Chases this season.  He won the event at Cheltenham where Silver Birch finished runner up prior to success at Aintree. Although he could only finish 15th in last year's race and would ideally prefer faster ground than he's likely to get on Saturday, he is one of only ten horses entered that have winning form over long distances (over 3m 4f).

Those would be my top four picks on all of the known trends, but later on today I will also post my personal selections, so we'll see how they compare to the shortlist!

The Rejects

Before we reveal the final shortlist of horses that qualify on all of the trends, I thought it would be useful to summarise which horses have been rejected so far and the reasons they have ended up on the scrap heap!

It's important to emphasise that in applying these trends I do not necessarily agree with all of the conclusions! For that reason, I'll be producing my own personal shortlist of recommended horses to back on the eve of the Grand National.  Those horses that appear on both lists will then be my five star tips!

But for now, here's a quick recap of why no less than 29 horses failed to make the cut:

Tidal Bay - top weight, rated too high, 13 years old
Long Run - too high in weights, rated too high
Hunt Ball - too high in weights, rated too high, no wins over 3m+
Triolo D'Alene - too high in weights, too high in ratings, only 7 years old
Rocky Creek - too high in weights, only 8 years old, not enough chase runs, not enough season runs, not run in 56 days, no wins 10+ runners
Quito De La Roque - no placed form this season
Colbert Station - not enough chase runs, no wins over 3m 1f+
Walkon - no wins over 3m+, not enough runs this season, no placed form
Mr Moonshine - no chase wins over 3m+
Battle Group - not run in last 56 days
Buckers Bridge - only 8 years old, no wins over 3m+
Prince De Beauchene - not run in last 56 days
Big Shu - not enough runs this season

Our Father - only 8 years old, not enough chase runs, no placed form this season

Mountainous - not enough chase runs, not run in last 56 days

The Rainbow Hunter - not run in last 56 days

Vintage Star - only 8 years old no senior chase win, no wins in race with 10+ runners

Hawkes Point - not enough chase runs, no wins over 3m 1f+, no class 1 or 2 win

Kruzhlinin - too young, no wins over 3m 1f+, no wins 10+ runners

Golan Way - not enough runs this season, no wins in chase 10+ runners

Twirling Magnet - only 8 years old, no senior chase wins, no wins over 3m 1f+

Vesper Bell - no wins 3m 1f+, no placed form, no class 1/2 win, no wins 10+ field, not run 56 days

The Package - not enough runs this season

Rose Of The Moon - not enough chase runs / season runs, no class 1/2 win, not run 56 days

Shakalakaboomboom - no placed form this season

Alvarado - too low in weights, not run in last 56 days
Last Time D'Albain - too low in weights, no wins over 3m+, no class 1/2 win, no wins 10+ field
One In A Milan - too low in weights, not enough chase runs, no wins over 3m 1f+, no class 1/2 win
Swing Bill - too low in weights, 13YO, not enough season runs, no placed form, no wins 10+ field

There are a few horses here that I would describe as 'bubbling under'; as we've seen in recent years just failing to tick one box for a dubious 'trend' is no real reason to discount the likes of Battle Group, Prince De Beauchene, Big Shu and The Rainbow Hunter - and you might just see one or two of them appear on my own personal picks later!

No prizes for guessing the 11 horses remaining who don't appear on the reject list above, but you'll have to wait and see whether they all make the final trends short list in my next post on Grand National eve!

Born To Run

Form Figures (part three)

In our final evaluation of current form, we need to review the number of runs a horse has had in the build-up to the Grand National and when they had their last race.

Too few runs and a horse may not have had the ideal preparation for Aintree, but too many miles on the clock and a horse may not have enough petrol left in the tank required for the marathon trip.

Every winner in the last 20 years (since Miinnehoma's unusual two race preparation in 2004) had run between three and six times since the start of August - and all had run in the previous 56 days.

This is a tricky one, as more and more horses are being kept under wraps until the Grand National weights are released to protect their handicap mark.  Combined with this, the very wet winter has resulted in soft or heavy going most of the season and therefore limited the potential to get runs in on for horses that need good ground.

As a result, we have to treat this trend with a certain amount of caution and some flexibility may be required. While you would not necessarily dismiss a horse for this reason alone, it is certainly another negative that counts against their chances.

Horses with too few runs

Rocky Creek - 2 runs

Walkon - 2 runs

Big Shu - 2 runs

Golan Way - 2 runs

The Package - 1 run

Rose Of The Moon - 2 runs

Swing Bill - 2 runs

Horses that have not run within last 56 days

Rocky Creek - 70 days

Battle Group - 105 days

Prince De Beauchene - 79 days

Mountainous - 63 days

The Rainbow Hunter - 70 days

Vesper Bell - 72 days

Rose Of The Moon - 74 days

Alvarado - 94 days

It would be ridiculous to dismiss a horse's chances purely based on an extra week or so, so I would probably extend the 56 day rule to two months.  But clearly if a horse has not been seen on a racecourse for ten weeks or more the chances are they may have had an interrupted preparation and / or may not be fit enough to do themselves justice.

A number of the horses on both lists above have now been disqualified on at least two of the trends. In fact there are now very few horses that haven't been mentioned in one way or another... We are getting closer to the final shortlist - and unsurprisingly there is less than a dozen potential qualifiers for this year's race.

The Place To Be

Form Figures (part two)

The next aspect of form we need to look at is how a horse has been performing so far this season. Auroras Encore was the first horse since I have been writing this bulletin to have won the Grand National without finishing placed at some point prior to Aintree, so was very much the exception to the rule.

The 2014 Grand National winner will almost certainly have finished in the first three at least once during the current campaign, preferably with a win to their name – and ideally with between three and six runs in total since August.

Every winner since 1990 had finished in the first three during the course of the season leading up to Aintree - and it was on at least one of their previous three runs. In fact, in the last 16 years only three horses (including Auroras Encore) have finished in the first three in the National having failed to get in the frame in any of their previous four starts.

It's worth reminding ourselves of the form figures for every Grand National winner since 1990:

Auroras Encore - P45F5
Neptune Collonges - P422
Ballabriggs - 112
Don't Push It - 423P
Mon Mome - 218278
Comply Or Die - 0P21
Silver Birch - 38242
Numbersixvalverde - 84B443
Hedgehunter - 924061
Amberleigh House - 342P5
Monty's Pass - 31364
Bindaree - 753367
Red Marauder - 14552F
Papillon - 875493
Bobbyjo - 580541
Earth Summit - 55165
Lord Gyllene - 231112
Rough Quest - F22F12
Royal Athlete - 3625
Miinnehoma - 17
Party Politics - 2255
Seagram - 3292131
Mr Frisk - 413354

As these figures demonstrate, winning form is not essential, but placed form certainly is. Although only six Grand National heroes since 2000 had visited the winner's enclosure prior to success at Aintree, all bar Auroras Encore had performed creditably by finishing in the frame at least once that season.  In fact 11 out of 13 winners had been placed more than once that season, underlining how important season form can be.

So it is still safe to reject the following group of six horses who have failed to show the prerequisite level of form so far this season:

Quito De La Roque
Walkon
Our Father
Vesper Bell
Shakalakaboombooom
Last Time D'Albain
Swing Bill

It might be ruthless, but you must have had a place to get in this race!

In the final part of our assessment of form figures we'll review the number of season runs and examine exactly when each contender had their final prep race for Aintree.

Different Class

Form Figures (part one)

With only two days to go until the big race it's about time to get down to the business end and start narrowing the field to our shortlist of potential winners.  To do this we need to scrutinise the factor that should matter above all other - form.

There are three important criteria that need to be applied to each of the contenders due to line up on Saturday:

- Have they won a Class 1 or Class 2 Chase?
- Have they won a race contested by 10 or more runners?
- Have they got placed form this season?

If the answer is 'no' to any of the above, then they can be eliminated.  But above all the most important consideration is class.  There may have been a number of shock results in the Grand National in the last twenty years, but regardless of whether or not they were fancied to win, all of them had previously won a Class 1 or Class 2 Chase.

Now, as you'd expect, for a race of this calibre there are actually very few horses that have not won at the pre-requisite level.  The vast majority of horses qualify, but we can still discount these five horses in the bottom half of the handicap:

Hawkes Point
Vesper Bell
Rose Of The Moon
Last Time D'Albain
One In A Milan

It is with great reluctance that we reject the Welsh National runner-up Hawkes Point, but he does look too inexperienced for the hurly burly of Aintree.  He has also not won a race under rules with 10 or more runners, a comment that also applies to the following quartet:

Rocky Creek
Vintage Star
Kruzhlinin
Vesper Bell

Although some of the same names keep cropping up, we're starting to reduce the number of hopefuls down to a manageable short list.  In the next post we will look at current season form to see if we can cut this down even further.

Horses For Courses

If ever there was a truism in racing that applied to the Grand National it is this one.  Horses that have run well at Aintree tend to do so time and time again.  Whether it is winners returning to defend their crown or placed horses finishing in the frame on multiple occasions, if they take to the big National fences, chances are they will light up when visiting the place again.

Previous winners may struggle to repeat their success due to carrying extra weight (only Red Rum has done so in the post-war era), but they often manage to get in the money more than once, with Gay Trip, Corbiere, West Tip, Party Politics, Papillon, Monty’s Pass, Hedgehunter, Comply or Die and Don't Push It all following up their win with a placed effort the following year.

Red Alligator, L’Escargot, Hallo Dandy and Amberleigh House won after being placed previously (L'Escargot was placed twice and won the race on his fourth attempt), while Eyecatcher, Rough and Tumble, Greasepaint, Durham Edition, Suny Bay, Blowing Wind, Clan Royal, State of Play, Cappa Bleu and Oscar Time were all placed more than once.

This bodes very well for Teaforthree, who fared best of last year's runners returning for another bid when finishing a gallant third.  And the veteran Swing Bill will be hoping to improve on his 10th and 6th placed finishes in the last two renewals, just as Amberleigh House did in his twilight years at the third attempt.

The Becher Chase has also been an excellent pointer in recent years, run over the same fences at Aintree's autumn meeting.  This has produced two winners in the last decade, Amberleigh House and Silver Birch, as well as dual runner up Clan Royal.  Good news then for Chance Du Roy, who won this season's renewal.

But it is not just form over the famous birch fences that counts; other recent winners have also had success elsewhere at the Grand National meeting.  Both Don't Push It and Mon Mome had both previously scored handicap chase wins at Aintree, while Auroras Encore won a handicap hurdle at the course earlier in his career.

In other words 50% of Grand National winners in the last ten years had already won at Aintree!  So it has to be worthwhile listing the nine horses that have winning form at the course:

Tidal Bay - three times course winner, two novice chase wins (incl. Gr1) and a Gr2 novice hurdle
Triolo D'Alene - winner of the 2013 Topham Chase over the National fences
Quito De La Roque - winner of a Grade Two novice chase in 2011
Walkon - winner of a Grade One novice hurdle in 2009
Wayward Prince - winner of a Listed chase in 2012
Battle Group - three times course winner, Listed handicap chase in 2013 and two handicap hurdles
Prince de Beauchene - winner of Listed handicap chase in 2011
Burton Port - winner of a Grade Two novice chase in 2010
Chance Du Roy - winner of 2013 Becher Chase

The multiple course winners, Tidal Bay and Battle Group, are particularly interesting - especially as the latter won the same contest last season that Don't Push It landed en route to his Grand National victory.  This is also the race that Prince de Beauchene won three years ago, which marked him out as a future National type, but injury in the last two seasons has forced him to miss the race when heading the ante-post betting.

Given the old 'horses for courses' adage, we would be wise to give added weight to the chances of any of these horses if they appear on the final trends shortlist.

National Treasure

Staying Power (part three)

One of the most startling statistics to have come out of the 'Staying Power' section of this blog each year is just how many winners of the race have previously run in the Grand National, Welsh National, Scottish National, Irish National or Hennessy Gold Cup (an incredible 83% since 1990).

Fifteen of the last 21 Grand National winners had either finished placed over the famous Aintree fences (including the Becher Chase as well as the National itself) or had a top-six finish in one of these major trial races. Two of the exceptions had at least run in these contests, while two more won other 'National' races. Only Ballabriggs and Don't Push It really buck this trend - and they had both won valuable handicap chases at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals respectively the previous season.

Last year's result proved this point most emphatically with the 1-2-3-4 all having relevant form: Auroras Encore was 2nd in the 2012 Scottish National, Cappa Bleu was 3rd in the 2011 Welsh National (and 4th in the 2012 Grand National), while Teaforthree was 2nd in the 2012 Welsh National and Oscar Time 2nd in the 2011 Grand National.

These staying chases might just prove to be the key to unlocking the secret of this year's race too, so it's well worth paying close attention to the horses that qualify on this particular trend:

2013 Grand National
3rd - Teaforthree
6th - Swing Bill
14th - Across The Bay
15th - Balthazar King
Unseated rider - The Rainbow Hunter and Colbert Station
Pulled up - Mr Moonshine and Lost Glory

2012 Grand National
9th - Shakalakaboomboom
10th - Swing Bill

2013 Welsh National
1st - Mountainous
2nd - Hawkes Point
3rd - Tidal Bay
4th - One In A Milan
6th - Vintage Star
8th - Goonyella
9th - Teaforthree

2012 Welsh National
1st - Monbeg Dude
2nd - Teaforthree
7th - Across The Bay

2013 Scottish National
Pulled up - Lion Na Bearnai

2012 Scottish National
Pulled up - Walkon

2013 Irish National
Pulled up - Goonyella

2012 Irish National
1st - Lion Na Bearnai

2013 Hennessy Gold Cup
1st - Triolo D'Alene
2nd - Rocky Creek
7th - Our Father
13th - Prince De Beauchene

2012 Hennessy Gold Cup
2nd - Tidal Bay
4th - The Package
6th - Teaforthree
Pulled up - Lion Na Bearnai

2013 Becher Chase
1st - Chance Du Roy
3rd - Mr Moonshine
5th - Swing Bill
8th - Across The Bay
10th - Rose Of The Moon
Fell - Vesper Bell

2012 Becher Chase
4th - Swing Bill

It is unlikely that the Scottish and Irish Nationals will have any bearing on the outcome of this year's big race at Aintree, but the Welsh National and Hennessy Gold Cup, as well as the Grand National itself, look to be the key races to focus on. My gut instinct tells me that the results of the last two Welsh Nationals may prove most significant in pinpointing this year's Aintree hero.

There may be 24 different horses listed above in the current field of 40 (plus the first two reserves), but when you overlay the key statistic above you are left with a group of just ten horses:

Tidal Bay
Triolo D'Alene
Rocky Creek
Mr Moonshine
Teaforthree
Monbeg Dude
Mountainous
Chance Du Roy
Hawkes Point
Lion Na Bearnai

Swing Bill and Across The Bay should probably remain in contention due to appearing regularly in the contests listed above, although they tend to be found wanting at the business end of these staying chases. Across The Bay has at least won over 3m 4f this season, although he could only finish 14th in the 2013 Grand National.  Balthazar King also disappointed in the big race last year, finishing one place further behind in 15th, but he comes to Aintree in superb form, including a win over 3m 7f at the Cheltenham Festival last time out, and therefore is still in the reckoning.

Prince De Beauchene, Our Father, The Rainbow Hunter, Vintage Star and The Package are all worthy of consideration on form, but they have yet to truly prove themselves as capable of competing beyond three miles, two and a half furlongs, so question marks remain over their stamina.

We will return to this section when drawing up the trends shortlist, but it's safe to say that a number of these horses will feature prominently when it comes to making the final selection!

Stay Another Day

Staying Power (part two)

I mentioned at the start of this year's blog that we would be placing extra emphasis this year on horses that have proven stamina; in other words, they have already won or been placed over marathon distances.

With only a small number of exceptions (Ballabriggs and Don't Push It probably the most notable in recent years), the vast majority of Grand National winners had either run in the race before, or another top class staying chase.  So when looking for clues to pick a shortlist of likely candidates that will be suited by the unique test of Aintree it is well worth looking out for these longer races - especially those with 'National' in the title.

Let's take a look at the best staying form of recent winners prior to their success at Aintree:

2013 - Auroras Encore, 2nd in Scottish National
2012 - Neptune Collonges, 6th in Scottish National, 2nd in Haydock Grand National trial
2011 - Ballabriggs, winner of Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase at Cheltenham
2010 - Don't Push It, winner of Listed John Smith's Handicap Chase at Aintree (3m 1f)
2009 - Mon Mome, 2nd in Welsh National, 10th in Grand National
2008 - Comply Or Die, winner of Eider Chase (pulled up in Welsh National)
2007 - Silver Birch, winner of Becher Chase and Welsh National
2006 - Numbersixvalverde, winner of Irish National and Thyestes Chase
2005 - Hedgehunter, winner of National Trial, Thyestes & Bobbjo Chase, 3rd in Welsh National
2004 - Amberleigh House, winner of Becher Chase (runner up twice), 3rd in Grand National
2003 - Monty's Pass, winner of Kerry National, 3rd in Munster National
2002 - Bindaree, 5th in Hennessy Gold Cup, 3rd in Welsh National
2001 - Red Marauder, 10th in Irish National, 5th in Hennessy Gold Cup
2000 - Papillon, 2nd in Irish National
1999 - Bobbyjo, winner of Irish National
1998 - Earth Summit, winner of Scottish National and Welsh National
1997 - Lord Gyllene, winner of Grand National Trial and 2nd in Midlands National
1996 - Rough Quest, 2nd in Hennessy, winner of Racing Post Chase, 2nd in Gold Cup
1995 - Royal Athlete, 3rd in Gold Cup, ran in void Grand National (fell in Irish National & Hennessy)
1994 - Miinnehoma, 3rd in Welsh National, 7th in Gold Cup
1992 - Party Politics, 2nd in Hennessy, 2nd in Welsh National (pulled up in Gold Cup)

As you can see, there are some really interesting patterns here, with plenty of form in the same staying chases.  So it's well worth paying attention to the following contenders for the 2014 renewal that have all proven ability over these longer trips:

Tidal Bay - winner of Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown (3m 5 1/2f)
Long Run - winner of Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m 2 1/2f)
Triolo D'Alene - winner of Hennessy Gold Cup (3m 2 1/2f)
Rocky Creek - 2nd in Hennessy Gold Cup (3m 2 1/2f)
Balthazar King - dual winner of Cheltenham Cross Country Chase (3m 7f), 15th in Grand National
Mr Moonshine - 3rd in Becher Chase (3m 2f)
Teaforthree - winner of NH Chase (4m), 2nd in Welsh National (3m 5 1/2f), 3rd in Grand National
Across The Bay - winner of Final Fling Chase (3m 4f), 14th in Grand National
Double Seven - winner of Munster National (3m) and Irish Midlands National (3m 1f)
Lion Na Bearnai - winner of Irish National (3m 5f)
Prince De Beauchene - winner of Bobbyjo Chase (3m 1f)
Monbeg Dude - winner of Welsh National (3m 5 1/2f)
Big Shu - winner of Cheltenham Cross Country Chase (3m 7f) and La Touche Cup (4m 1f)
Burton Port - 2nd in Hennessy Gold Cup (3m 2 1/2f)
Mountainous - winner of Welsh National (3m 5 1/2f)
Hawkes Point - 2nd in Welsh National (3m 5 1/2f)
Chance Du Roy - winner of Becher Chase (3m 2f)
Pineau De Re - winner of Ulster National (3m 4f)
The Package - 4th in Hennessy Gold Cup (3m 2 1/2f)
Raz De Maree - winner of Cork National (3m 4f)
Alvarado - winner of Grade 3 Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (3m 3 1/2f)

OK - so that only reduces the field by half, but I would fully expect that the winner of this year's Grand National will come from the above list of 21 runners.  Proven stamina is absolutely essential, and ideally you want a horse that has already run in a 'National' contest of one form or another, which we will examine more closely next.

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

Staying Power (part one)

Say what you like about all the other trends relating to age, weight and rating, there is one indisputable fact that remains true every single year at Aintree: a horse needs stamina to win the Grand National.

Even though the National is now half a furlong shorter, with a reduced run to the first fence introduced last year, at four miles three and a half furlongs it is still by some way the longest horse race in the sporting calendar.  It is a gruelling marathon, so a horse must have proven ability over longer distances to stand a chance in this unique contest.

Every single winner since Gay Trip in 1970 had previously won over the minimum trip of three miles - and all bar two had won over at least three miles, one furlong (25 furlongs).  The only exceptions were Red Marauder (2001), who fell in the Grand National on his first attempt the previous year, and Bindaree (2002), who finished 3rd in that season's Welsh National.

The entry rules for the Grand National changed three years ago, so that horses now need to have finished in the first four in a race over at least three miles in order to qualify for a run at Aintree, so this key trend no longer eliminates as many horses as it did previously.  Nevertheless, we can still discount the following four horses who have yet to win over at least three miles:

Hunt Ball - furthest win 2m 4f
Walkon - furthest win 2m 3f
Buckers Bridge - furthest win 2m 4f
Last Time D'Albain - furthest win 2m 4f

There is no chance that any of these will win the race, and they arguably shouldn't even be taking part as I can't see them lasting the Grand National distance in a horse box!  Forget this myth about the race suiting horses that are specialist two and a half milers, it simply isn't true.

There are other contenders in this year's race that have yet to win over any further than three miles (i.e. their longest win has been over a maximum of 24 furlongs), so it would be advisable to also approach the following five horses with caution:

Colbert Station
Hawkes Point (although 2nd in 2013 Welsh National)
Kruzhlinen
Vesper Bell
On In A Milan

The obvious exception here is Hawkes Point, who cannot be dismissed after just failing to win the Welsh National by a head, which was a fantastic effort for one so inexperienced. But he has already been rejected on the basis of having only seven chase runs anyway.

All of the other horses listed above are readily overlooked, especially with the Champion Jockey Tony McCoy looking likely to select Double Seven over Colbert Station.  There has to be a big question mark over the stamina for all bar one of these contenders and there are definitely more obvious staying types in the line-up, as we'll see in the next post.

Too Old For Gold

Age and Experience (part two)

Having eliminated the chances of ten young guns, it's time to turn our attention to those thoroughbreds in their twilight years.  There are many old favourites who return to the Grand National year in, year out - and others whose careers may be on the wane and are looking for one last chance of glory.

We all have a soft spot for these old timers, but the fact remains that only Ben Nevis, Little Polveir, Royal Athlete and Amberleigh House have won as 12 year olds since the great Red Rum triumphed for the third time to enter the history books back in 1977.  Their success rate is actually very similar to 8 year olds.

The fact that both Red Rum and Amberleigh House were trained by the legendary Ginger McCain proves what an incredible handler he was, managing to get his horses in peak condition for Aintree time and again, even at the end of their racing careers.

It's no mean feat getting a tune out of these veterans, who are often prone to injury and have their best years behind them.  While I would never use age as the only basis for dismissing the chances of Grand National contenders, it has to be a major factor when considering other trends.

This year is quite unusual as there is only one horse aged 12 in the race, the former Irish National winner Lion Na Bearnai, but there are also two 13 year olds who could feature in the line-up:

Tidal Bay, 11-10, rated 161, aged 13
Swing Bill, 10-1, rated 138, aged 13
Lion Na Bearnai, 10-10, rated 147, aged 12

We have already dismissed Tidal Bay on the trends as he is set to carry top weight, but he is a very interesting contender, especially as he is theoretically 'well in' due to the leniency of the handicapper in allocating a weight that is 7lb below his official mark.

Unlike most veterans to have contested the Grand National, Tidal Bay is also relatively lightly raced, having had 26 chase outings - and his best form has arguably come in the last two years since joining trainer Paul Nicholls.  He won the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown over 3m 5f in 2012 and then went on to land the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown at the end of that year.  He has also continued to perform well at the top level this season, with a valiant third in the Welsh National under top weight and finishing runner-up in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup last time out.

It would therefore be foolish to be too dismissive about Tidal Bay's chances, especially as a three time course winner in his novice hurdle / novice chase days.  However, he would have to produce the greatest weight bearing performance since Red Rum in order to win the National.  While I can see him running very well, much like Hedgehunter, Royal Auclair and Suny Bay who all finished runner-up under top weight, I remain convinced that he'll find one or two just too good at the end of a gruelling 4m 3f.

Swing Bill is currently 41st on the list, but may still get a run if one horse drops out before the end of the week.  He ran out of his skin to finish 6th in the Grand National last year, improving on his 10th place the previous season, and will probably complete the course again.  But his only victories since his novice days have come in amateur rider / veterans events, so it is hard to see him being competitive in this.

Just to emphasise the task that this pair face, it is 91 years since a 13 year old last won the Grand National!

If an old-timer is to win the big race this year it could well be Lion Na Bearnai, who is another lightly raced sort for his age, having had just 15 outings over fences.  His best form came in the 2011/12 season when he won three races, including the Irish National.  Last term he was pulled up in both the Hennessy and Scottish National, but returned to winning ways in February this year winning a minor contest back at Fairyhouse, the scene of his greatest success.

With plenty of younger horses that still have improvement in them in the line-up, the veterans look up against it again this year. Sticking to the trends we still need to focus on horses aged 9, 10 and 11, who account for 28 out of 35 wins in the race (80%) since Red Rum's third victory in 1977.

Too Much, Too Young

Age and Experience (part one)

After the weights and ratings trends, the next stage is to look at the age of typical National winners.

The basic rule of thumb is that horses need experience to win a Grand National; therefore older horses tend to fare better. Novices, or even second season chasers, have a very poor record generally – and all winners of the National in the past four decades have had at least 10 races over fences before landing the big one at Aintree.

No horse aged seven (or below) has won the Grand National since Bogskar in 1940.  This would count against Hennessy Gold Cup winner Triolo D'Alene, as well as Kruzhlinin and Goonyella, although only the last named has had less than 10 chase runs to date (albeit one of those over the stamina test of 3m 6f).

It is even wise to exercise caution before backing horses aged eight – as only three horses this age have won since Red Rum's first success in 1973; Corbiere (1983), Party Politics (1992) and Bindaree (2002), so roughly once every 10 years (arguably we are due one very soon!). Crucially, the two most recent eight year old heroes had at least 14 outings over fences.

In fact only one horse aged eight or younger has finished in the first six in the last four Grand Nationals (Big Fella Thanks, who was 4th in 2010). There was also one placed eight year old in 2008 (Snowy Morning 3rd) and two in 2007 (McKelvey 2nd and Slim Pickings 3rd), but otherwise the race has been dominated by horses aged 9 or above in the last five years (accounting for 19 out of a possible 20 places).

It is therefore worth taking a closer look at the level of experience of the young guns in this year's line-up. Unless they have had sufficient chase runs (particularly over distances of 3m plus, ideally in handicap fields of 13 or more runners), younger horses are unlikely to take to the hustle and bustle of the Grand National compared to more seasoned campaigners.

There are currently six horses aged eight in the field of 40 who are due to line up at Aintree this weekend:

Rocky Creek - only 7 chase runs
Double Seven - 16 chase runs
Buckers Bridge - 10 chase runs
Our Father - 6 chase runs
Vintage Star - 10 chase runs
Twirling Magnet - 12 chase runs

Of these, only Double Seven is really experienced enough for a test like the Grand National, as winner of the Munster National back in October.  Our Father has been running at top level, finishing 7th in the Hennessy and 5th in Haydock's Grand National trial, but he has been beaten by a combined 102 lengths in his three starts this season so without any placed form he doesn't look good enough.

Buckers Bridge finished third in the Bobbyjo Chase behind On His Own, but has yet to win a race over 2m 4f, while Twirling Magnet has only novice wins to his name and has failed to perform in his two senior chase starts to date.  Vintage Star is another without a senior chase win in three attempts, although he did finish runner up in the Rehearsal Chase, followed by 6th place in the Welsh National.

There is also a handful of 9 year olds who have yet to have the prerequisite 10 runs over fences, although this does include the 1st and 2nd in this year's Welsh National, which has traditionally been a very good pointer for Aintree over the years.

Rose of the Moon - 6 chase runs
Hawkes Point - 7 chase runs
One In A Milan - 6 chase runs
Mountainous - 9 chase runs

It would be very difficult to discount Moutainous and Hawkes Point just on this basis, but strictly on the trends only Double Seven survives this cull, reducing our list of potential winners down by a further ten horses.

So that's half the field gone already and we're only just getting started!

The Lightweights

One of the paradoxes of the Grand National has traditionally been that while you don't want too much weight, you don't want too little either! Horses at the other end of the handicap mostly lack the class and proven ability that is needed to win the Grand National.

Shock results actually occur more frequently that you may think - but when they do happen (Royal Athlete in 1995, Red Marauder in 2001, Silver Birch in 2007, Mon Mome in 2009, Neptune Collonges in 2012 and Auroras Encore last year all won at odds of 33/1 or bigger) they tend to be horses that had previously shown decent form at the highest level, but for one reason or another had fallen out of favour.

Although Auroras Encore had to carry just 10st 3lb last year, only three horses have won the Grand National with less weight than this since Rubstic landed the race in 1979.  Little Polveir (1987), Lord Gyllene (1997) and Bobbyjo (1999) all won carrying the minimum weight, but crucially all of this trio were rated 142 or more.  The last 14 winners since the turn of the century have all won carrying at least 10st 3lb or more.

Gone are the days when a third of the field would run from out of the handicap. Since 2004 all horses have run off their correct handicap mark in all bar the last two renewals, making the race much more competitive.

Between 2008 and 2010 the bottom weight was between 10st 5lb and 10st 7lb; effectively making the race more of a limited handicap.  This is one of the reasons that horses carrying 11st or more found it easier to carry bigger weights to finish in the places in these years.  In the last 30 years only Neptune Collonges has won the Grand National carrying more than a stone higher than the lowest weight.

However, in 2011 the bottom weight was 10st 2lb, while horses ran off the minimum of 10 stone in 2012 and 2013, so again this highlights how patterns are constantly shifting.  Based on the number of withdrawals at the five day declaration stage in previous years it looks like the bottom weight will be around 10st 1lb or 10st 2lb this year

Horse number 40 is currently Once In A Milan, rated 139 (two pounds higher than last year's winner), so we cannot actually discount any horse this year based on rating alone.  But if we make 10st 3lb the cut off point, which accounts for 90% of Grand National winners since 1983 (only three have won under this weight in the last 30 years), we should avoid the following four horses at the bottom end of the handicap:

Alvarado
Last Time D'Albain
One In A Milan
Swing Bill

All of this quartet are set to carry 10st 2lb or less and are rated 139 or below.  This would therefore not necessarily be enough to dismiss their chances entirely (learning an expensive lesson from last year!), but apart from Alvarado none of these really have good enough form this season to win the race. Alvarado has at least won over three miles, three and a half furlongs, so stamina could be his forte, but crucially he has not run for 94 days.

So we will add these four to our trends scrapheap!

The Heavyweights

There are strong indications in recent years that weight is not the major inconvenience that it once was.  Perhaps this is in part due to the softening of the fences, but more likely the compressing of the handicap by Phil Smith is the major factor.

Nevertheless, it still takes some horse to carry a welter burden around the four mile, three furlong trip of the Grand National.  Many have tried, but very few have succeeded.  In fact, Red Rum remains the only horse to have carried more than 11-7 to victory in the National in the post war era (not once, but twice - winning under 12 stone and 11st 8lb).

Two winners in the 1950s were successful under 11-7 (Royal Tan and Sundrew), but 2012 winner Neptune Collonges on 11-6 became the first horse since Rummy to win the Grand National with more than 11-5 on his back.  The fact remains that horses right at the top of the handicap will always struggle to give so much weight away over such a marathon distance.

Since 1984 a total of 147 horses have carried 11st 2lb or more - and all of them apart from Don't Push It and Neptune Collonges failed.  While we need to bear in mind that 19 of the 24 placed horses in the past five years carried 11 stone or more this is still a pretty compelling statistic.

As the list below illustrates, 84 horses have carried 11-7 or more in the Grand National since 1980. Despite some valiant weight carrying performances to finish in the places (often by previous winners or horses that had run well in the race before), none of them won the ultimate prize.

2013
Imperial Commander 11-10 pulled up at 11/1
What A Friend pulled up at 33/1.
Weird Al 11-8 pulled up at 66/1
Quel Esprit 11-7 pulled up at 40/1

2012
Ballabriggs 11-9 6th at 12/1
Weird Al 11-8 fell 4 out at 28/1
Synchronised 11-10 fell 6th at 10/1

2011
Don't Push It 11-10 3rd at 9/1
Tidal Bay 11-9 UR 10th at 28/1

2010
Madison Du Berlais 11-10 fell 19th at 50/1
Mon Mome 11-7 fell 26th at 14/1

2009
Snowy Morning 11-8 9th at 33/1
Chelsea Harbour 11-8 fell 3rd at 40/1
Knowhere 11-7 PU 25th at 50/1
Cloudy Lane 11-10 UR 15th at 50/1

2008
Hi Cloy 11-12 11th at 100/1
Hedgehunter 11-12 13th at 10/1
Mr Pointment 11-11 PU last at 25/1
Turko 11-10 fell 25th at 33/1
Madison Du Berlais 11-9 fell 8th at 66/1
Simon 11-7 UR 25th at 11/1
Knowhere 11-11 UR 25th at 66/1

2007
Hedgehunter 11-12 9th at 9/1
L'Ami 11-8 10th at 14/1
Eurotrek 11-8 PU 22nd at 16/1

2006
Hedgehunter 11-12 2nd at 5/1
It Takes Time 11-8 PU 3 out at 50/1
Royal Auclair 11-12 fell 1st at 33/1
Le Roi Miguel 11-7 PU 19th at 150/1
Cornish Rebel 11-9 PU 19th at 22/1
Therealbandit 11-9 PU 27th at 50/1

2005
Royal Auclair 11-10 2nd at 40/1
Le Coudray 11-12 PU 21st at 33/1

2004
Monty's Pass 11-10 4th at 20/1
Kingsmark 11-7 9th at 66/1
Alexander Banquet 11-8 fell 18th at 100/1
Le Coudray 11-12 fell 22nd at 28/1
What's Up Boys 11-9 BD 6th at 25/1
Artic Jack 11-7 fell 1st at 20/1

2003
Behrajan 11-12 10th at 22/1
Fadalko 11-7 UR 6th at 100/1
Shotgun Willy 11-9 PU 21st at 7/1
Gingembre 11-9 PU 24th at 14/1

2002
Kingsmark 11-9 4th at 16/1
Marlborough 11-12 fell 1st at 20/1
Alexander Banquet 11-11 UR 6th at 22/1

2001
Beau 11-10 UR 20th at 12/1

2000
Djeddah 11-8 9th at 16/1
Suny Bay 11-12 13th at 66/1
Young Kenny 12-0 fell 10th at 14/1
Escartefigue 11-9 UR last at 50/1

1999
Suny Bay 11-13 13th at 12/1

1998
Suny Bay 12-0 2nd at 11/1

1997
Master Oats 11-10 5th at 25/1

1996
Young Hustler 11-7 5th at 8/1

1995
Master Oats 11-10 7th at 5/1

1994
Quirinus 11-10 UR 15th at 250/1
Run For Free 11-7 REF 17th at 25/1

1992
Twin Oaks 11-7 5th at 9/1

1991
Bonanza Boy 11-7 5th at 13/2
Fraze 11-10 PU 18th at 100/1

1990
Bonanza Boy 11-9 16th at 16/1

1989
The Thinker 11-10 3rd at 10/1

1988
West Tip 11-7 4th at 11/1

1987
West Tip 11-7 4th at 5/1F
Bewley's Hill 12-0 BD at 100/1
Valencio 12-00 Fell at 500/1

1986
Essex 12-0 PU at 100/1
Corbiere 11-7 Fell at 14/1

1985
Corbiere 11-10 3rd at 9/1
Drumlargan 11-8 PU at 8/1

1984
Corbiere 12-0 3rd at 16/1
Grittar 11-10 10th at 12/1
Ashley House 11-13 Fell at 20/1

1983
Grittar 11-12 5th at 6/1
Venture To Cognac 11-12 8th at 28/1
Tacroy 11-9 PU at 33/1
Spartan Missile 11-7 UR at 9/1

1982
Royal Mail 11-10 Fell at 17/2
Aldaniti 11-9 Fell at 12/1
Again The Same 11-8 PU at 16/1
Carrow Boy 11-7 Fell at 40/1

1981
Royal Mail 11-7 3rd at 16/1
Chumson 11-7 Fell at 50/1

So what does this mean for this year's renewal?  Well there are actually five very well fancied contenders on 11st 5lb or more, all rated 156 or higher.  Neptune Collonges aside, and despite the best endeavours of the handicapper to favour them, there is little evidence to suggest that this group of horses that head the field will be able to defy the weights they have been allocated.

On all known trends we have to discount the following famous five:

Tidal Bay - 11st 10lb, rated 161
Long Run, 11st 9lb, rated 160
Hunt Ball, 11st 7lb, rated 158
Triolo D'Alene, 11st 6lb, rated 157
Rocky Creek, 11st 5lb, rated 156

This select group includes a former Gold Cup winner, a Lexus Chase winner, another Cheltenham Festival winner and the first and second in this year's Hennessy Gold Cup!  And all five are trained by two of the best handlers in the game, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson.  So they are not to be dismissed lightly, especially as four of them currently feature in the first eight in the betting!

However, there are good reasons why each of them will not win on the trends, apart from weight and rating. Tidal Bay is just too old now at 13 and Sergeant Murphy was the last horse of that age to win back in 1923. Hunt Ball has not won over further than two and a half miles and would appear to have no chance of lasting the trip. Triolo D'Alene is still too young at just seven years old, while Rocky Creek is too inexperienced with just seven chase runs to date.

Long Run is arguably the only one that is potentially interesting, although his best years look to be behind him. He may have won an egg and spoon contest at Kelso last time out, but otherwise his form this season has been very disappointing.  Add into the mix Nicky Henderson's poor record in the race (16 of his 17 runners in the race since 1992 have failed to complete!) and his trio are readily opposed.

The record of Paul Nicholls is actually not that much better; although Neptune Collonges broke his Grand National hoodoo in 2012, that remains his only success in 56 attempts, with only 27% of his runners completing the course.

So that's five down, just 35 more to go!

A Weighty Issue

One of the thorniest issues for trends followers in the Grand National is the question of weight.  As has already been highlighted above, the pendulum has swung one way, then another - and it is impossible to be complacent about whether the long held belief that the race favours lightweights still holds true.

Back in the 70s and 80s it was commonplace to see horses lumping big weights to victory at Aintree. Red Rum, L'Escargot, Rag Trade, Ben Nevis, Aldaniti, Grittar, Corbiere, West Tip, Maori Venture and Rhyme N' Reason all carried 10st 11lb or more - and four of them had a burden of 11st 3lb plus.

But since 1989, the trends shifted dramatically towards the light weighted horses at the bottom of the handicap - and it stayed that way for the best part of 20 years.

The first sign that we could be seeing a return to the form of the old days was when the classy Hedgehunter won under 11st 1lb in 2005. Although this initially looked like a blip, four of the last five National heroes have now also carried 11 stone or more.

In fact, the 11lb margin between 10 stone 9lb and 11st 6lb accounts for nine of the last 14 winners. But it is when we look beyond the winner that we get the biggest illustration that this is a new pattern being established and not merely a statistical blip.

All bar two of the 24 placed horses in the last six Grand Nationals were allocated 10st 9lb or more. Thirteen of these carried weights of 11 stone or more - clear evidence that the compressing of the handicap is favouring the heavyweights (who are theoretically 'well in') compared to those horses at the bottom of the handicap.

Here are the stark results for the last five years:

2008 - 11 out of the first 13 horses to finish carried 10st 10lb or more
2009 - 7 out of the first 10 horses to finish carried 10st 13lb or more
2010 - 10 out of the first 12 horses to finish carried 10st 11lb or more
2011 - 7 out of the first 12 horses to finish carried 10st 12lb or more
2012 - 5 out of the first 9 horses to finish carried 10st 10lb or more
2013 - 6 out of the first 10 horses to finish carried 10st 8lb or more

OK, so the last two renewals are more inconclusive - especially with Aurora's Encore victory last year.  In fact the last two winners would have been racing off light weights of just 10st 3lb and 10st 5lb had Sunnyhillboy managed to hold off the challenge of Neptune Collonges in 2012.

Regardless of this we have to acknowledge that weight is not the dominant factor that it once was. Nevertheless, my favoured weight band has always been around the 10st 7lb to 11st mark - in other words, just enough class, but not too much weight - and nine out of the 16 horses placed in the last four years have fallen into this range (56%).

So perhaps we shouldn't be so obsessed with high or low when it comes to looking at the Grand National weights, but concentrate on the middle of the handicap to find the most likely winner...

The New Rules

Trends from 1983 to 2013

Despite the ten year dip in the quality of the Grand National from 1999 to 2008, the following statistics can still be applied to at least 90% of winners of the big race in the last thirty years (since 1984):

• All winners were aged between 8 and 12 (only three 8YO & three 12YO) (100%)
• All winners had winning form over 3 miles or more (100%)
• All bar two winners had won a chase contested by 10+ runners (93%)
• All bar two winners had an Official Rating of between 136 and 154 (93%)
• All bar three winners carried 11 stone 1lb or less to victory (90%)

The weight trends have traditionally been very strong during this period, with 25 of the last 30 winners carrying a weight of between 10st 2lb and 11st 1lb - just a 13 pound margin. However, two of the exceptions above this mark occurred in the last four years - and four of the last five Grand National victors carried 11 stone or more,

To complicate things further, Aurora's Encore carried the lowest weight of any winner last year since Bobbyjo won off the minimum weight in 1999, so we can no longer rely on what used to be the strongest trend of all.

Trends from 1994 to 2013

If we narrow this down further and look at the results from the past twenty years, the following comments apply to every single winner:

• Aged between 8 and 12 (only two 8YO and two 12YO)
• Previous winner over at least three miles
• Ran at least ten times over fences during career
• Between three and seven runs that season (since August)
• Previously won a Class 1 or Class 2 Chase
• Ran within the previous 56 days

Results in the last five years have put a blot on some other key trends, but we can still also factor in the following statistics since 1994:

• All bar one winner was officially rated 136 to 153
• All bar two winners have carried 11st 1lb or less
• All bar two winners had experience of running in a ‘National’ race of some form and / or the Hennessy Gold Cup (the exceptions are Ballabriggs and Don't Push It, again both recent winners)

On this last point, it is fascinating to note that 16 out of the last 21 Grand National winners (76%) had run in either the Irish, Welsh or Scottish equivalent at some point in their careers. Using this statistic alone would be as good a system as any for generating a shortlist of potential winners!