The Lightweights

One of the paradoxes of the Grand National has traditionally been that while you don't want too much weight, you don't want too little either! Horses at the other end of the handicap mostly lack the class and proven ability that is needed to win the Grand National.

Shock results actually occur more frequently that you may think - but when they do happen (Royal Athlete in 1995, Red Marauder in 2001, Silver Birch in 2007, Mon Mome in 2009, Neptune Collonges in 2012 and Auroras Encore last year all won at odds of 33/1 or bigger) they tend to be horses that had previously shown decent form at the highest level, but for one reason or another had fallen out of favour.

Although Auroras Encore had to carry just 10st 3lb last year, only three horses have won the Grand National with less weight than this since Rubstic landed the race in 1979.  Little Polveir (1987), Lord Gyllene (1997) and Bobbyjo (1999) all won carrying the minimum weight, but crucially all of this trio were rated 142 or more.  The last 14 winners since the turn of the century have all won carrying at least 10st 3lb or more.

Gone are the days when a third of the field would run from out of the handicap. Since 2004 all horses have run off their correct handicap mark in all bar the last two renewals, making the race much more competitive.

Between 2008 and 2010 the bottom weight was between 10st 5lb and 10st 7lb; effectively making the race more of a limited handicap.  This is one of the reasons that horses carrying 11st or more found it easier to carry bigger weights to finish in the places in these years.  In the last 30 years only Neptune Collonges has won the Grand National carrying more than a stone higher than the lowest weight.

However, in 2011 the bottom weight was 10st 2lb, while horses ran off the minimum of 10 stone in 2012 and 2013, so again this highlights how patterns are constantly shifting.  Based on the number of withdrawals at the five day declaration stage in previous years it looks like the bottom weight will be around 10st 1lb or 10st 2lb this year

Horse number 40 is currently Once In A Milan, rated 139 (two pounds higher than last year's winner), so we cannot actually discount any horse this year based on rating alone.  But if we make 10st 3lb the cut off point, which accounts for 90% of Grand National winners since 1983 (only three have won under this weight in the last 30 years), we should avoid the following four horses at the bottom end of the handicap:

Alvarado
Last Time D'Albain
One In A Milan
Swing Bill

All of this quartet are set to carry 10st 2lb or less and are rated 139 or below.  This would therefore not necessarily be enough to dismiss their chances entirely (learning an expensive lesson from last year!), but apart from Alvarado none of these really have good enough form this season to win the race. Alvarado has at least won over three miles, three and a half furlongs, so stamina could be his forte, but crucially he has not run for 94 days.

So we will add these four to our trends scrapheap!