Ten Year Trends

Age

9 year olds – 3 wins
10 year olds – 4 wins
11 year olds – 2 win
12 year olds – 1 win

Average winning age - 10 years
All bar three aged nine or ten
Seven of last nine winners aged nine or ten
Oldest winner 12; youngest winner 9

Weight

Average winning weight - 10st 12lbs
All bar three carrying between 10st 6lb and 11st 1lb
Five of last nine winners carried between 11st and 11st 5lb
Highest weight 11st 6lb; lowest weight 10st 3lb
All bar one carried no more than 14lb higher than the lowest weight

Rating

Average rating - 144.3
All bar three rated between 137 and 148
Four of last five winners rated between 148 and 156
Highest rated 156; lowest rated 137

Experience

8/10 had between 10 and 25 races over fences (2012 winner had 27 races)
10/10 had at least ten races over fences (6 of last 8 winners had raced between 10 and 15 times)
10/10 had between three and six runs since the start of August

Form

9/10 had a top-three finish in at least one of their last three runs
9/10 had no more than one win that season
9/10 had won a chase worth at least £29,000
8/10 finished in the first three in a race over at least 3m 3f (eight of the last nine winners)
7/10 were running in the Grand National for the first time
6/10 had run over hurdles at some point that season
6/10 were placed in their last race (i.e. 1st, 2nd or 3rd); only two won
3/10 had run at the Cheltenham Festival

8/10 had either finished placed over the National fences or had a top-six finish in the Welsh National, Irish National, Scottish National or Hennessy Gold Cup. The two exceptions had won valuable handicap chases at Aintree or Cheltenham festivals the previous season.

Betting

Fate of the Favourites (most recent last):

2nd / fell / 2 x unseated, 1st, 2nd & 3rd, fell / refused / pulled up, 1st & 6th, 7th, 1st / 4th, 6th, 3rd / 9th, 13th (+ £7 gain to a £1 stake)

Position in the market: 8 1 3 0 1 0 1 6 0 0

Average winning odds - 29.7/1
Seven winners in the first eight in the betting
All bar four priced between 7/1 and 16/1
Three winning favourites since 2005

Record of previous year's winner:

4th, 10th, 2nd, 6th, N/A, 2nd, 12th, 3rd, 6th, N/A

Other key statistics:

The following statements apply to ALL of the last ten winners:

• Officially rated 137 to 157
• Carried between 10st 3lb and 11st 6lbs
• Aged between 9 and 12
• Previous winner over at least three miles
• Ran at least ten times over fences during career
• Between three and six runs since August
• Won a Class 1 or Class 2 Handicap Chase
• Ran between 20 and 56 days prior to the race
• Had experience of running in a ‘National’ race of some form, or had previously won at Aintree or Cheltenham Festivals