Trend Busting Encore?

So the big question is, will the trends be busted again this year?

The 2012 Grand National was a disastrous result for followers of this blog for many reasons. Neptune Collonges carried the highest weight of any winner since Red Rum in 1977. On an official mark of 157, he was also the highest rated winner since Maori Venture in 1987. He was only the second French bred horse to win since 1909 (Mon Mome being the other in 2009) and also the first grey horse to be victorious in the National since Nicolaus Silver in 1961! Aged 11 years old, he was the first horse of that age to win since Red Marauder in 2001 - and only the second since Miinnehoma back in 1994.

It would have been another story entirely had our selection Sunnyhillboy prevailed in that photo finish, but that now has to be consigned to racing history.

The bad luck continued last year when Auroras Encore denied two of the horses on the shortlist, Cappa Bleu and Teaforthree, who could only manage 2nd and 3rd place respectively.

But was that such a trend busting performance as it first appeared?  Yes, the horse was a barely considered 66/1 shot, yet with the benefit of hindsight we can see that Auroras Encore ticked many of the traditional trends boxes:

√ Carried under 11st 1lb (10st 3lb)
X Rated between 138 and 153 (rated 137)
√ Aged between nine and eleven (aged 11)
√ Winner over three miles plus (won over 3m 1f)
√ Winner of a Class 1 or Class 2 chase (Class 1)
√ Had at least 10 runs over fences (23 races)
√ Ran within the last 49 days (35 days)
√ Between 3 and 6 runs since August (5 runs)
X Finished placed this season (best 4th)
√ Placed form in a National or at Aintree / Cheltenham Festivals (2nd in Scottish National)

So apart from the fact that he was rated one pound below the trends band and had no real form running up to the race (on unsuitably soft ground), in many respects he was actually a typical winner.

On the ratings, Auroras Encore on 137 was very much in line with the Grand National results from 1999 to 2008, when all ten winners were rated between 136 and 144.  In fact eight of them in this period were rated 136 to 140 - just a narrow four pound margin.

It is only very recently that classier horses started to win the race again (largely due to the leniency of the handicapper in artificially compressing the weights).

Moreover, the first four horses home all had form in Nationals of one kind or another: Auroras Encore was 2nd in the 2012 Scottish National, Cappa Bleu was 3rd in the 2011 Welsh National (and 4th in the 2012 Grand National), while Teaforthree was 2nd in the 2012 Welsh National and Oscar Time 2nd in the 2011 Grand National.

This is what should have caused us to sit up and take notice.  As we see time and time again in the Grand National stamina is everything.  Of the 11 horses in last year's race to have won or been placed over distances of three and a half miles plus, four of them filled the 1-2-3-4 finishing positions! 

Auroras Encore had also fallen five times previously in his racing career, which is most unusual in a Grand National winner (normally no more than three career falls maximum is the rule).  But as I underlined in the introduction, this race is now no longer about jumping ability (and Auroras certainly clattered through a few obstacles last year), so we will be giving added weight to staying power this year.