Introduction

Welcome to the 23rd edition of my annual Grand National bulletin.

I'm late getting going so it will be a shortened version this year, with daily updates provided from today's five day entry stage through to the day of the big race this weekend.

I’ve been writing this Grand National trends preview for most of my adult life.  What originally started as a print out for friends and family expanded into a wider e-mail distribution and in recent years it has taken on a life of its own with this blog.

My obsession with the Grand National started when I was very young.  Picking the winner seemed so easy back then; I backed Aldaniti, Grittar, Hello Dandy, West Tip and Rhyme N’ Reason all before the age of sixteen!  Then after I correctly predicted the 1-2-3 in the 1990 Grand National won by Mr Frisk many friends were clamouring for my tips every year. And so the annual bulletin was born, with great success initially - highlighting the chances of every winner from 1992 to 1998.

But I very nearly didn’t bother writing it this year, as the magic of the great race is starting to wear off a little.  Some might say that is due to me only predicting one winner in the last five years, which is probably partially true (!), but it is actually more to do with the changing nature of the race itself.

Horse welfare has to be paramount and it is only right that every possible measure has been taken to ensure the safety of runners and riders in the race.  But in doing so, the essence of the race may well have changed irrevocably.  As a result, I’m just not convinced that the trends that have served us so well over the years are going to be as relevant any more.

The lasting impression of the 2013 renewal was the ‘parting of the waves’ as each fence simply fell apart.  The new fence cores are a great innovation in terms of making the race so much safer for horses, but the fact remains that Grand National is no longer the test of jumping that it once was.  A test of stamina, yes, but there is no way that a bad jumper like Auroras Encore (with six previous falls) could have taken such liberties with the fences in previous years and still won the great race.

That might sound like sour grapes, but it’s not at all.  Predicting the winner has just become much more difficult – winners at 100/1, 66/1 and 33/1 twice in the last six years is testament to that.  The basic premise of this annual bulletin was that the Grand National was not, contrary to popular belief, a lottery; and that a series of very strong trends helped to pinpoint the victor each year by producing a shortlist of potential winners.

Now I am no longer sure that this is the case.  The race is more unpredictable, competitive and wide open than ever before.  Nevertheless, buoyed by the requests from many faithful followers (for which I am very grateful), I will venture once more unto the breach in an attempt to solve the puzzle that is the Grand National.

Although Ballabriggs is the only winner for this bulletin in recent years, it has still successfully highlighted the chances of 14 out of the last 22 Grand National heroes – so not a bad strike rate overall!  And there have been a series of frustrating near misses along the way too, most notably Sunnyhillboy failing by a nose in the closest ever finish to the race in 2012.

The good news is that the trends have rarely failed to produce at least one or two placed horses – and despite the shock result last year, we still had the 2^nd and 3^rd in Cappa Bleu and Teaforthree.

The likes of Don’t Push It, Auroras Encore and Neptune Collonges may have proven to be trends busters in recent years, but we will still apply as many of the statistics as possible to produce a shortlist of potential candidates for this year’s race.

I hope you enjoy reading the blog – and if you do have a flutter this weekend, good luck!