The Heavyweights

There are strong indications in recent years that weight is not the major inconvenience that it once was.  Perhaps this is in part due to the softening of the fences, but more likely the compressing of the handicap by Phil Smith is the major factor.

Nevertheless, it still takes some horse to carry a welter burden around the four mile, three furlong trip of the Grand National.  Many have tried, but very few have succeeded.  In fact, Red Rum remains the only horse to have carried more than 11-7 to victory in the National in the post war era (not once, but twice - winning under 12 stone and 11st 8lb).

Two winners in the 1950s were successful under 11-7 (Royal Tan and Sundrew), but 2012 winner Neptune Collonges on 11-6 became the first horse since Rummy to win the Grand National with more than 11-5 on his back.  The fact remains that horses right at the top of the handicap will always struggle to give so much weight away over such a marathon distance.

Since 1984 a total of 147 horses have carried 11st 2lb or more - and all of them apart from Don't Push It and Neptune Collonges failed.  While we need to bear in mind that 19 of the 24 placed horses in the past five years carried 11 stone or more this is still a pretty compelling statistic.

As the list below illustrates, 84 horses have carried 11-7 or more in the Grand National since 1980. Despite some valiant weight carrying performances to finish in the places (often by previous winners or horses that had run well in the race before), none of them won the ultimate prize.

2013
Imperial Commander 11-10 pulled up at 11/1
What A Friend pulled up at 33/1.
Weird Al 11-8 pulled up at 66/1
Quel Esprit 11-7 pulled up at 40/1

2012
Ballabriggs 11-9 6th at 12/1
Weird Al 11-8 fell 4 out at 28/1
Synchronised 11-10 fell 6th at 10/1

2011
Don't Push It 11-10 3rd at 9/1
Tidal Bay 11-9 UR 10th at 28/1

2010
Madison Du Berlais 11-10 fell 19th at 50/1
Mon Mome 11-7 fell 26th at 14/1

2009
Snowy Morning 11-8 9th at 33/1
Chelsea Harbour 11-8 fell 3rd at 40/1
Knowhere 11-7 PU 25th at 50/1
Cloudy Lane 11-10 UR 15th at 50/1

2008
Hi Cloy 11-12 11th at 100/1
Hedgehunter 11-12 13th at 10/1
Mr Pointment 11-11 PU last at 25/1
Turko 11-10 fell 25th at 33/1
Madison Du Berlais 11-9 fell 8th at 66/1
Simon 11-7 UR 25th at 11/1
Knowhere 11-11 UR 25th at 66/1

2007
Hedgehunter 11-12 9th at 9/1
L'Ami 11-8 10th at 14/1
Eurotrek 11-8 PU 22nd at 16/1

2006
Hedgehunter 11-12 2nd at 5/1
It Takes Time 11-8 PU 3 out at 50/1
Royal Auclair 11-12 fell 1st at 33/1
Le Roi Miguel 11-7 PU 19th at 150/1
Cornish Rebel 11-9 PU 19th at 22/1
Therealbandit 11-9 PU 27th at 50/1

2005
Royal Auclair 11-10 2nd at 40/1
Le Coudray 11-12 PU 21st at 33/1

2004
Monty's Pass 11-10 4th at 20/1
Kingsmark 11-7 9th at 66/1
Alexander Banquet 11-8 fell 18th at 100/1
Le Coudray 11-12 fell 22nd at 28/1
What's Up Boys 11-9 BD 6th at 25/1
Artic Jack 11-7 fell 1st at 20/1

2003
Behrajan 11-12 10th at 22/1
Fadalko 11-7 UR 6th at 100/1
Shotgun Willy 11-9 PU 21st at 7/1
Gingembre 11-9 PU 24th at 14/1

2002
Kingsmark 11-9 4th at 16/1
Marlborough 11-12 fell 1st at 20/1
Alexander Banquet 11-11 UR 6th at 22/1

2001
Beau 11-10 UR 20th at 12/1

2000
Djeddah 11-8 9th at 16/1
Suny Bay 11-12 13th at 66/1
Young Kenny 12-0 fell 10th at 14/1
Escartefigue 11-9 UR last at 50/1

1999
Suny Bay 11-13 13th at 12/1

1998
Suny Bay 12-0 2nd at 11/1

1997
Master Oats 11-10 5th at 25/1

1996
Young Hustler 11-7 5th at 8/1

1995
Master Oats 11-10 7th at 5/1

1994
Quirinus 11-10 UR 15th at 250/1
Run For Free 11-7 REF 17th at 25/1

1992
Twin Oaks 11-7 5th at 9/1

1991
Bonanza Boy 11-7 5th at 13/2
Fraze 11-10 PU 18th at 100/1

1990
Bonanza Boy 11-9 16th at 16/1

1989
The Thinker 11-10 3rd at 10/1

1988
West Tip 11-7 4th at 11/1

1987
West Tip 11-7 4th at 5/1F
Bewley's Hill 12-0 BD at 100/1
Valencio 12-00 Fell at 500/1

1986
Essex 12-0 PU at 100/1
Corbiere 11-7 Fell at 14/1

1985
Corbiere 11-10 3rd at 9/1
Drumlargan 11-8 PU at 8/1

1984
Corbiere 12-0 3rd at 16/1
Grittar 11-10 10th at 12/1
Ashley House 11-13 Fell at 20/1

1983
Grittar 11-12 5th at 6/1
Venture To Cognac 11-12 8th at 28/1
Tacroy 11-9 PU at 33/1
Spartan Missile 11-7 UR at 9/1

1982
Royal Mail 11-10 Fell at 17/2
Aldaniti 11-9 Fell at 12/1
Again The Same 11-8 PU at 16/1
Carrow Boy 11-7 Fell at 40/1

1981
Royal Mail 11-7 3rd at 16/1
Chumson 11-7 Fell at 50/1

So what does this mean for this year's renewal?  Well there are actually five very well fancied contenders on 11st 5lb or more, all rated 156 or higher.  Neptune Collonges aside, and despite the best endeavours of the handicapper to favour them, there is little evidence to suggest that this group of horses that head the field will be able to defy the weights they have been allocated.

On all known trends we have to discount the following famous five:

Tidal Bay - 11st 10lb, rated 161
Long Run, 11st 9lb, rated 160
Hunt Ball, 11st 7lb, rated 158
Triolo D'Alene, 11st 6lb, rated 157
Rocky Creek, 11st 5lb, rated 156

This select group includes a former Gold Cup winner, a Lexus Chase winner, another Cheltenham Festival winner and the first and second in this year's Hennessy Gold Cup!  And all five are trained by two of the best handlers in the game, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson.  So they are not to be dismissed lightly, especially as four of them currently feature in the first eight in the betting!

However, there are good reasons why each of them will not win on the trends, apart from weight and rating. Tidal Bay is just too old now at 13 and Sergeant Murphy was the last horse of that age to win back in 1923. Hunt Ball has not won over further than two and a half miles and would appear to have no chance of lasting the trip. Triolo D'Alene is still too young at just seven years old, while Rocky Creek is too inexperienced with just seven chase runs to date.

Long Run is arguably the only one that is potentially interesting, although his best years look to be behind him. He may have won an egg and spoon contest at Kelso last time out, but otherwise his form this season has been very disappointing.  Add into the mix Nicky Henderson's poor record in the race (16 of his 17 runners in the race since 1992 have failed to complete!) and his trio are readily opposed.

The record of Paul Nicholls is actually not that much better; although Neptune Collonges broke his Grand National hoodoo in 2012, that remains his only success in 56 attempts, with only 27% of his runners completing the course.

So that's five down, just 35 more to go!