The New Rules

Trends from 1983 to 2013

Despite the ten year dip in the quality of the Grand National from 1999 to 2008, the following statistics can still be applied to at least 90% of winners of the big race in the last thirty years (since 1984):

• All winners were aged between 8 and 12 (only three 8YO & three 12YO) (100%)
• All winners had winning form over 3 miles or more (100%)
• All bar two winners had won a chase contested by 10+ runners (93%)
• All bar two winners had an Official Rating of between 136 and 154 (93%)
• All bar three winners carried 11 stone 1lb or less to victory (90%)

The weight trends have traditionally been very strong during this period, with 25 of the last 30 winners carrying a weight of between 10st 2lb and 11st 1lb - just a 13 pound margin. However, two of the exceptions above this mark occurred in the last four years - and four of the last five Grand National victors carried 11 stone or more,

To complicate things further, Aurora's Encore carried the lowest weight of any winner last year since Bobbyjo won off the minimum weight in 1999, so we can no longer rely on what used to be the strongest trend of all.

Trends from 1994 to 2013

If we narrow this down further and look at the results from the past twenty years, the following comments apply to every single winner:

• Aged between 8 and 12 (only two 8YO and two 12YO)
• Previous winner over at least three miles
• Ran at least ten times over fences during career
• Between three and seven runs that season (since August)
• Previously won a Class 1 or Class 2 Chase
• Ran within the previous 56 days

Results in the last five years have put a blot on some other key trends, but we can still also factor in the following statistics since 1994:

• All bar one winner was officially rated 136 to 153
• All bar two winners have carried 11st 1lb or less
• All bar two winners had experience of running in a ‘National’ race of some form and / or the Hennessy Gold Cup (the exceptions are Ballabriggs and Don't Push It, again both recent winners)

On this last point, it is fascinating to note that 16 out of the last 21 Grand National winners (76%) had run in either the Irish, Welsh or Scottish equivalent at some point in their careers. Using this statistic alone would be as good a system as any for generating a shortlist of potential winners!