A Weighty Issue

One of the thorniest issues for trends followers in the Grand National is the question of weight.  As has already been highlighted above, the pendulum has swung one way, then another - and it is impossible to be complacent about whether the long held belief that the race favours lightweights still holds true.

Back in the 70s and 80s it was commonplace to see horses lumping big weights to victory at Aintree. Red Rum, L'Escargot, Rag Trade, Ben Nevis, Aldaniti, Grittar, Corbiere, West Tip, Maori Venture and Rhyme N' Reason all carried 10st 11lb or more - and four of them had a burden of 11st 3lb plus.

But since 1989, the trends shifted dramatically towards the light weighted horses at the bottom of the handicap - and it stayed that way for the best part of 20 years.

The first sign that we could be seeing a return to the form of the old days was when the classy Hedgehunter won under 11st 1lb in 2005. Although this initially looked like a blip, four of the last five National heroes have now also carried 11 stone or more.

In fact, the 11lb margin between 10 stone 9lb and 11st 6lb accounts for nine of the last 14 winners. But it is when we look beyond the winner that we get the biggest illustration that this is a new pattern being established and not merely a statistical blip.

All bar two of the 24 placed horses in the last six Grand Nationals were allocated 10st 9lb or more. Thirteen of these carried weights of 11 stone or more - clear evidence that the compressing of the handicap is favouring the heavyweights (who are theoretically 'well in') compared to those horses at the bottom of the handicap.

Here are the stark results for the last five years:

2008 - 11 out of the first 13 horses to finish carried 10st 10lb or more
2009 - 7 out of the first 10 horses to finish carried 10st 13lb or more
2010 - 10 out of the first 12 horses to finish carried 10st 11lb or more
2011 - 7 out of the first 12 horses to finish carried 10st 12lb or more
2012 - 5 out of the first 9 horses to finish carried 10st 10lb or more
2013 - 6 out of the first 10 horses to finish carried 10st 8lb or more

OK, so the last two renewals are more inconclusive - especially with Aurora's Encore victory last year.  In fact the last two winners would have been racing off light weights of just 10st 3lb and 10st 5lb had Sunnyhillboy managed to hold off the challenge of Neptune Collonges in 2012.

Regardless of this we have to acknowledge that weight is not the dominant factor that it once was. Nevertheless, my favoured weight band has always been around the 10st 7lb to 11st mark - in other words, just enough class, but not too much weight - and nine out of the 16 horses placed in the last four years have fallen into this range (56%).

So perhaps we shouldn't be so obsessed with high or low when it comes to looking at the Grand National weights, but concentrate on the middle of the handicap to find the most likely winner...