Too Much, Too Young

Age and Experience (part one)

After the weights and ratings trends, the next stage is to look at the age of typical National winners.

The basic rule of thumb is that horses need experience to win a Grand National; therefore older horses tend to fare better. Novices, or even second season chasers, have a very poor record generally – and all winners of the National in the past four decades have had at least 10 races over fences before landing the big one at Aintree.

No horse aged seven (or below) has won the Grand National since Bogskar in 1940.  This would count against Hennessy Gold Cup winner Triolo D'Alene, as well as Kruzhlinin and Goonyella, although only the last named has had less than 10 chase runs to date (albeit one of those over the stamina test of 3m 6f).

It is even wise to exercise caution before backing horses aged eight – as only three horses this age have won since Red Rum's first success in 1973; Corbiere (1983), Party Politics (1992) and Bindaree (2002), so roughly once every 10 years (arguably we are due one very soon!). Crucially, the two most recent eight year old heroes had at least 14 outings over fences.

In fact only one horse aged eight or younger has finished in the first six in the last four Grand Nationals (Big Fella Thanks, who was 4th in 2010). There was also one placed eight year old in 2008 (Snowy Morning 3rd) and two in 2007 (McKelvey 2nd and Slim Pickings 3rd), but otherwise the race has been dominated by horses aged 9 or above in the last five years (accounting for 19 out of a possible 20 places).

It is therefore worth taking a closer look at the level of experience of the young guns in this year's line-up. Unless they have had sufficient chase runs (particularly over distances of 3m plus, ideally in handicap fields of 13 or more runners), younger horses are unlikely to take to the hustle and bustle of the Grand National compared to more seasoned campaigners.

There are currently six horses aged eight in the field of 40 who are due to line up at Aintree this weekend:

Rocky Creek - only 7 chase runs
Double Seven - 16 chase runs
Buckers Bridge - 10 chase runs
Our Father - 6 chase runs
Vintage Star - 10 chase runs
Twirling Magnet - 12 chase runs

Of these, only Double Seven is really experienced enough for a test like the Grand National, as winner of the Munster National back in October.  Our Father has been running at top level, finishing 7th in the Hennessy and 5th in Haydock's Grand National trial, but he has been beaten by a combined 102 lengths in his three starts this season so without any placed form he doesn't look good enough.

Buckers Bridge finished third in the Bobbyjo Chase behind On His Own, but has yet to win a race over 2m 4f, while Twirling Magnet has only novice wins to his name and has failed to perform in his two senior chase starts to date.  Vintage Star is another without a senior chase win in three attempts, although he did finish runner up in the Rehearsal Chase, followed by 6th place in the Welsh National.

There is also a handful of 9 year olds who have yet to have the prerequisite 10 runs over fences, although this does include the 1st and 2nd in this year's Welsh National, which has traditionally been a very good pointer for Aintree over the years.

Rose of the Moon - 6 chase runs
Hawkes Point - 7 chase runs
One In A Milan - 6 chase runs
Mountainous - 9 chase runs

It would be very difficult to discount Moutainous and Hawkes Point just on this basis, but strictly on the trends only Double Seven survives this cull, reducing our list of potential winners down by a further ten horses.

So that's half the field gone already and we're only just getting started!