Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

Staying Power (part one)

Say what you like about all the other trends relating to age, weight and rating, there is one indisputable fact that remains true every single year at Aintree: a horse needs stamina to win the Grand National.

Even though the National is now half a furlong shorter, with a reduced run to the first fence introduced last year, at four miles three and a half furlongs it is still by some way the longest horse race in the sporting calendar.  It is a gruelling marathon, so a horse must have proven ability over longer distances to stand a chance in this unique contest.

Every single winner since Gay Trip in 1970 had previously won over the minimum trip of three miles - and all bar two had won over at least three miles, one furlong (25 furlongs).  The only exceptions were Red Marauder (2001), who fell in the Grand National on his first attempt the previous year, and Bindaree (2002), who finished 3rd in that season's Welsh National.

The entry rules for the Grand National changed three years ago, so that horses now need to have finished in the first four in a race over at least three miles in order to qualify for a run at Aintree, so this key trend no longer eliminates as many horses as it did previously.  Nevertheless, we can still discount the following four horses who have yet to win over at least three miles:

Hunt Ball - furthest win 2m 4f
Walkon - furthest win 2m 3f
Buckers Bridge - furthest win 2m 4f
Last Time D'Albain - furthest win 2m 4f

There is no chance that any of these will win the race, and they arguably shouldn't even be taking part as I can't see them lasting the Grand National distance in a horse box!  Forget this myth about the race suiting horses that are specialist two and a half milers, it simply isn't true.

There are other contenders in this year's race that have yet to win over any further than three miles (i.e. their longest win has been over a maximum of 24 furlongs), so it would be advisable to also approach the following five horses with caution:

Colbert Station
Hawkes Point (although 2nd in 2013 Welsh National)
Kruzhlinen
Vesper Bell
On In A Milan

The obvious exception here is Hawkes Point, who cannot be dismissed after just failing to win the Welsh National by a head, which was a fantastic effort for one so inexperienced. But he has already been rejected on the basis of having only seven chase runs anyway.

All of the other horses listed above are readily overlooked, especially with the Champion Jockey Tony McCoy looking likely to select Double Seven over Colbert Station.  There has to be a big question mark over the stamina for all bar one of these contenders and there are definitely more obvious staying types in the line-up, as we'll see in the next post.