Personal Picks

As is now a traditional part of this Grand National blog, for my final post I reveal my own personal picks to see how they compare with the trends.  They don't always agree - but when there is an overlap between the two lists it has been a pretty good indicator in recent times, pinpointing at least two placed horses in each of the past three years.

There's always a story, even occasionally an incredible fairytale (like Bob Champion and Aldaniti that got me hooked) and that's the beauty of the race.  So my own personal picks often fly in the face of trends logic; sometimes you just have to inject a bit of your own emotion and subjective judgement in there too!

Here's a complete run down of the nine contenders I think should be seriously considered for the 2014 Grand National (in handicap order):

Tidal Bay - current best odds 18/1
This one might be a bit of a shock inclusion, as I very rarely have the top weight in my personal picks - and especially a 13 year old like Tidal Bay!  There are good reasons to oppose him on the trends, but the handicapper has given him every chance.  He is effectively 7lb 'well in' so should not be disadvantaged by his welter burden and seems to be as spritely as ever, finishing a close 3rd in the Welsh National and runner-up in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup.

One of these days a top weight will win again - and it could well be this year.  The compressed handicap and softer fences should in theory make it easier to carry large weights around the four and a half mile trip, although I suspect he may still find or or two too good in a driving finish round the elbow.

Long Run - current best odds 12/1
It's not often you see a former Gold Cup and dual King George winner line-up in the Grand National, especially one that is still only nine years old, so you have to pay maximum respect when you get a horse of this class participating in the Grand National.  The trends might tell you that L'Escargot was the last Gold Cup hero to do the double almost forty years ago, but again the handicapper has been lenient on Long Run. His weight of 11st 9lb may be heavier than any winner since Red Rum, but his current rating of 160 is up to 22lb below his best form.

Long Run does have a tendency to be low and quick at his fences, but that will not matter as much now with the modified obstacles.  His jockey, Sam Waley Cohen, has the best record over these fences, having won the Foxhunters Chase three times (twice runner up), as well as a Topham Chase, and he has also finished in the first five in the Grand National on three out of four occasions (2nd, 4th & 5th).  If he gets round, a big run looks likely.

Balthazar King - current best odds 20/1
This horse is a really likeable sort and comes here in great heart having won all four starts so far this season. Three of those victories have come in Cross Country Chases, which would be an unusual route for a Grand National winner, although 2007 hero Silver Birch did finish runner-up in the same event that Balthazar King won at Cheltenham last month.  Philip Hobbs had a tremendous Festival and will have high hopes of going one better than he achieved with his 2002 Grand National runner-up What's Up Boys.

There might be a question mark over whether this comes too soon after his Cheltenham exertions, but other horses to have run at the Festival have done well so far this week at Aintree.  He will need to improve on his 15th place in this race last year though, which wouldn't give too much encouragement for his backers.  This year's race will be run in similar conditions and ideally he would want the ground to be faster.

Teaforthree - current best odds 10/1 favourite
There should be no surprise to see Teaforthree high on my personal shortlist as this was my main tip for last year's race.  At one stage it looked like we would get a win, but the horse just tired in the closing stages before fading into third.  Carrying 5lb less this year, he should be right up there at the climax again if he is more conservatively ridden.  Amberleigh House finished third in the National the year before his memorable win in 2004, so hopefully lightning can strike twice.

A winner at the Cheltenham Festival over four miles and runner up in the 2012 Welsh National, his stamina is assured, and although he could only finish 9th at Chepstow in the 2013 renewal and 8th in the Gold Cup last time out, this has been the target all season.  Finishing unplaced in the Gold Cup was no barrier to success for Aintree heroes Rhyme N' Reason and Miinnehoma so hopefully the same is true for Teaforthree this year!

Monbeg Dude - current best odds 14/1
The Welsh National has been probably the best guide to the big race at Aintree over the years, with five Grand National winners having won or finished placed in the Chepstow marathon since 1998, so I make no apology for putting five such horses on my own short list this year.  Monbeg Dude just got the better of Teaforthree in a thrilling finish to the 2012 renewal and has been aimed at this race ever since.  He won a valuable Grade Three Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in December and looks to be the ideal type for Aintree.  Some question his jumping ability, but he has only unseated his rider once in eleven chase starts to date and looks to still be improving. On an ideal weight of 10st 9lb, a bold bid is predicted.

Big Shu - current best odds 25/1
If we include Balthazar King on the shortlist, then we have to also feature Big Shu, who won the Cross Country Chase over 3m 7f at Cheltenham at last year's Festival before finishing a close third this year.  He ended last season with victory in the La Touche Cup over 4m 1f at Punchestown, which means that he actually has success over the furthest distance of the 40 runners due to line up on Saturday. Whether that form is good enough is anyone's guess, but I'm going for proven stamina as the main determining factor in all of my selections this year.  Big Shu was only dismissed from the trends on the basis of having only two runs this season, but that was good enough for Miinnehoma, so why not this horse too?

Mountainous - current best odds 50/1
I have no idea whatsoever why Mountainous is available at such massive odds as I think he has a huge chance tomorrow.  He won the Welsh National this season by a head over Hawkes Point and deserves to be 20/1 or less for this.  Admittedly that victory was on heavy ground and he is weighted up to that new mark now, but he looks another that is still improving and at nine years old has the ideal profile. Mountainous missed the trends shortlist due to only having nine runs over fences, but that's not good enough reason for me. Providing the ground isn't too fast he could spring a surprise and run into the frame at a big price.

Chance Du Roy - current best odds 33/1
Another forgotten horse is Chance Du Roy, who won this season's Becher Chase in fine style but has barely been mentioned since.  This race has been the target all season since he beat a field of 22 over these famous National fences in the autumn, including six of the rivals he will face tomorrow, as well as a certain horse called On His Own, who finished runner-up in this year's Gold Cup.  In fact the 3rd, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th & 11th placed horses all subsequently won, so this form looks rock solid.  We have seen time and again that experience over these fences can be invaluable and Chance Du Roy looks excellent value to emulate the likes of Amberleigh House and Silver Birch by following up in the big one.

Hawkes Point - current best odds 50/1
Obviously this year's Welsh National form isn't rated highly at all, but I don't see any reason why Teaforthree and Monbeg Dude should be so short in the betting with this year's 1st and 2nd available at five times the price - especially as both of them beat Tidal Bay in third place!  That form looks as good as anything else on offer in this race and therefore Hawkes Point has to be included in my personal picks despite his inexperience.  Like Tidal Bay, he is trained by Paul Nicholls, who won the race with Neptune Collonges, but he seems to be the least fancied of the Ditcheat trio.  I take no notice of that and he is another horse that could prove to be great each way value.

Such is the wide-open nature of this year's race that there are at least another half dozen 'bubbling under' that have 'National' form to their names who I also rate, including Munster National winner Double Seven, former Irish National winner Lion Na Bearnai and Ulster National winner Pineau De Re.

The two horses that won the Listed Handicap Chase won by Don't Push It en route to Aintree glory, Battle Group and Prince De Beauchene also warrant respect, especially as the latter has been well fancied for this race for the last two years until having to pull out at the eleventh hour due to injury.  On form, you'd also have to throw The Package and Alvarado in the mix too as their best races this season have worked out very well.

But going back to the selections above, there are just four horses that appear on both my personal and trends lists: BALTHAZAR KING, TEAFORTHREE, MONBEG DUDE and CHANCE DU ROY. Factoring in the weights, form and other key stats, they would have to be the five star selections for this year.  It's almost impossible to split them, but if pushed I will go with the following finishing order:

1st - Teaforthree
2nd - Monbeg Dude
3rd - Chance Du Roy

4th - Balthazar King

The final places can be fought out between the classy pair of Tidal Bay or Long Run, with either Mountainous or Hawkes Point outperforming their odds to make the top six at a big price.

Remember to bet with a bookmaker that offers a quarter the odds each way for the first FIVE places at least.  If you bet with Bet 365 they will give you half of your stake back (up to a maximum of £125) as well as match best prices from 10.00am on Saturday with Best Odds Guaranteed.  So I would highly recommend that you open an account with them if you haven't already placed your bets (and no, I'm not on commission!).  Bet Victor are the only firm offering each way on six places.

Thank you for reading my blog.  If I don't win this year it may well prove to be the last...  Whatever the outcome enjoy the race and good luck!