The Rejects

Before we reveal the final shortlist of horses that qualify on all of the trends, I thought it would be useful to summarise which horses have been rejected so far and the reasons they have ended up on the scrap heap!

It's important to emphasise that in applying these trends I do not necessarily agree with all of the conclusions! For that reason, I'll be producing my own personal shortlist of recommended horses to back on the eve of the Grand National.  Those horses that appear on both lists will then be my five star tips!

But for now, here's a quick recap of why no less than 29 horses failed to make the cut:

Tidal Bay - top weight, rated too high, 13 years old
Long Run - too high in weights, rated too high
Hunt Ball - too high in weights, rated too high, no wins over 3m+
Triolo D'Alene - too high in weights, too high in ratings, only 7 years old
Rocky Creek - too high in weights, only 8 years old, not enough chase runs, not enough season runs, not run in 56 days, no wins 10+ runners
Quito De La Roque - no placed form this season
Colbert Station - not enough chase runs, no wins over 3m 1f+
Walkon - no wins over 3m+, not enough runs this season, no placed form
Mr Moonshine - no chase wins over 3m+
Battle Group - not run in last 56 days
Buckers Bridge - only 8 years old, no wins over 3m+
Prince De Beauchene - not run in last 56 days
Big Shu - not enough runs this season

Our Father - only 8 years old, not enough chase runs, no placed form this season

Mountainous - not enough chase runs, not run in last 56 days

The Rainbow Hunter - not run in last 56 days

Vintage Star - only 8 years old no senior chase win, no wins in race with 10+ runners

Hawkes Point - not enough chase runs, no wins over 3m 1f+, no class 1 or 2 win

Kruzhlinin - too young, no wins over 3m 1f+, no wins 10+ runners

Golan Way - not enough runs this season, no wins in chase 10+ runners

Twirling Magnet - only 8 years old, no senior chase wins, no wins over 3m 1f+

Vesper Bell - no wins 3m 1f+, no placed form, no class 1/2 win, no wins 10+ field, not run 56 days

The Package - not enough runs this season

Rose Of The Moon - not enough chase runs / season runs, no class 1/2 win, not run 56 days

Shakalakaboomboom - no placed form this season

Alvarado - too low in weights, not run in last 56 days
Last Time D'Albain - too low in weights, no wins over 3m+, no class 1/2 win, no wins 10+ field
One In A Milan - too low in weights, not enough chase runs, no wins over 3m 1f+, no class 1/2 win
Swing Bill - too low in weights, 13YO, not enough season runs, no placed form, no wins 10+ field

There are a few horses here that I would describe as 'bubbling under'; as we've seen in recent years just failing to tick one box for a dubious 'trend' is no real reason to discount the likes of Battle Group, Prince De Beauchene, Big Shu and The Rainbow Hunter - and you might just see one or two of them appear on my own personal picks later!

No prizes for guessing the 11 horses remaining who don't appear on the reject list above, but you'll have to wait and see whether they all make the final trends short list in my next post on Grand National eve!