Stay Another Day

Staying Power (part two)

I mentioned at the start of this year's blog that we would be placing extra emphasis this year on horses that have proven stamina; in other words, they have already won or been placed over marathon distances.

With only a small number of exceptions (Ballabriggs and Don't Push It probably the most notable in recent years), the vast majority of Grand National winners had either run in the race before, or another top class staying chase.  So when looking for clues to pick a shortlist of likely candidates that will be suited by the unique test of Aintree it is well worth looking out for these longer races - especially those with 'National' in the title.

Let's take a look at the best staying form of recent winners prior to their success at Aintree:

2013 - Auroras Encore, 2nd in Scottish National
2012 - Neptune Collonges, 6th in Scottish National, 2nd in Haydock Grand National trial
2011 - Ballabriggs, winner of Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase at Cheltenham
2010 - Don't Push It, winner of Listed John Smith's Handicap Chase at Aintree (3m 1f)
2009 - Mon Mome, 2nd in Welsh National, 10th in Grand National
2008 - Comply Or Die, winner of Eider Chase (pulled up in Welsh National)
2007 - Silver Birch, winner of Becher Chase and Welsh National
2006 - Numbersixvalverde, winner of Irish National and Thyestes Chase
2005 - Hedgehunter, winner of National Trial, Thyestes & Bobbjo Chase, 3rd in Welsh National
2004 - Amberleigh House, winner of Becher Chase (runner up twice), 3rd in Grand National
2003 - Monty's Pass, winner of Kerry National, 3rd in Munster National
2002 - Bindaree, 5th in Hennessy Gold Cup, 3rd in Welsh National
2001 - Red Marauder, 10th in Irish National, 5th in Hennessy Gold Cup
2000 - Papillon, 2nd in Irish National
1999 - Bobbyjo, winner of Irish National
1998 - Earth Summit, winner of Scottish National and Welsh National
1997 - Lord Gyllene, winner of Grand National Trial and 2nd in Midlands National
1996 - Rough Quest, 2nd in Hennessy, winner of Racing Post Chase, 2nd in Gold Cup
1995 - Royal Athlete, 3rd in Gold Cup, ran in void Grand National (fell in Irish National & Hennessy)
1994 - Miinnehoma, 3rd in Welsh National, 7th in Gold Cup
1992 - Party Politics, 2nd in Hennessy, 2nd in Welsh National (pulled up in Gold Cup)

As you can see, there are some really interesting patterns here, with plenty of form in the same staying chases.  So it's well worth paying attention to the following contenders for the 2014 renewal that have all proven ability over these longer trips:

Tidal Bay - winner of Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown (3m 5 1/2f)
Long Run - winner of Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m 2 1/2f)
Triolo D'Alene - winner of Hennessy Gold Cup (3m 2 1/2f)
Rocky Creek - 2nd in Hennessy Gold Cup (3m 2 1/2f)
Balthazar King - dual winner of Cheltenham Cross Country Chase (3m 7f), 15th in Grand National
Mr Moonshine - 3rd in Becher Chase (3m 2f)
Teaforthree - winner of NH Chase (4m), 2nd in Welsh National (3m 5 1/2f), 3rd in Grand National
Across The Bay - winner of Final Fling Chase (3m 4f), 14th in Grand National
Double Seven - winner of Munster National (3m) and Irish Midlands National (3m 1f)
Lion Na Bearnai - winner of Irish National (3m 5f)
Prince De Beauchene - winner of Bobbyjo Chase (3m 1f)
Monbeg Dude - winner of Welsh National (3m 5 1/2f)
Big Shu - winner of Cheltenham Cross Country Chase (3m 7f) and La Touche Cup (4m 1f)
Burton Port - 2nd in Hennessy Gold Cup (3m 2 1/2f)
Mountainous - winner of Welsh National (3m 5 1/2f)
Hawkes Point - 2nd in Welsh National (3m 5 1/2f)
Chance Du Roy - winner of Becher Chase (3m 2f)
Pineau De Re - winner of Ulster National (3m 4f)
The Package - 4th in Hennessy Gold Cup (3m 2 1/2f)
Raz De Maree - winner of Cork National (3m 4f)
Alvarado - winner of Grade 3 Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (3m 3 1/2f)

OK - so that only reduces the field by half, but I would fully expect that the winner of this year's Grand National will come from the above list of 21 runners.  Proven stamina is absolutely essential, and ideally you want a horse that has already run in a 'National' contest of one form or another, which we will examine more closely next.