Too Old For Gold

Age and Experience (part two)

Having eliminated the chances of ten young guns, it's time to turn our attention to those thoroughbreds in their twilight years.  There are many old favourites who return to the Grand National year in, year out - and others whose careers may be on the wane and are looking for one last chance of glory.

We all have a soft spot for these old timers, but the fact remains that only Ben Nevis, Little Polveir, Royal Athlete and Amberleigh House have won as 12 year olds since the great Red Rum triumphed for the third time to enter the history books back in 1977.  Their success rate is actually very similar to 8 year olds.

The fact that both Red Rum and Amberleigh House were trained by the legendary Ginger McCain proves what an incredible handler he was, managing to get his horses in peak condition for Aintree time and again, even at the end of their racing careers.

It's no mean feat getting a tune out of these veterans, who are often prone to injury and have their best years behind them.  While I would never use age as the only basis for dismissing the chances of Grand National contenders, it has to be a major factor when considering other trends.

This year is quite unusual as there is only one horse aged 12 in the race, the former Irish National winner Lion Na Bearnai, but there are also two 13 year olds who could feature in the line-up:

Tidal Bay, 11-10, rated 161, aged 13
Swing Bill, 10-1, rated 138, aged 13
Lion Na Bearnai, 10-10, rated 147, aged 12

We have already dismissed Tidal Bay on the trends as he is set to carry top weight, but he is a very interesting contender, especially as he is theoretically 'well in' due to the leniency of the handicapper in allocating a weight that is 7lb below his official mark.

Unlike most veterans to have contested the Grand National, Tidal Bay is also relatively lightly raced, having had 26 chase outings - and his best form has arguably come in the last two years since joining trainer Paul Nicholls.  He won the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown over 3m 5f in 2012 and then went on to land the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown at the end of that year.  He has also continued to perform well at the top level this season, with a valiant third in the Welsh National under top weight and finishing runner-up in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup last time out.

It would therefore be foolish to be too dismissive about Tidal Bay's chances, especially as a three time course winner in his novice hurdle / novice chase days.  However, he would have to produce the greatest weight bearing performance since Red Rum in order to win the National.  While I can see him running very well, much like Hedgehunter, Royal Auclair and Suny Bay who all finished runner-up under top weight, I remain convinced that he'll find one or two just too good at the end of a gruelling 4m 3f.

Swing Bill is currently 41st on the list, but may still get a run if one horse drops out before the end of the week.  He ran out of his skin to finish 6th in the Grand National last year, improving on his 10th place the previous season, and will probably complete the course again.  But his only victories since his novice days have come in amateur rider / veterans events, so it is hard to see him being competitive in this.

Just to emphasise the task that this pair face, it is 91 years since a 13 year old last won the Grand National!

If an old-timer is to win the big race this year it could well be Lion Na Bearnai, who is another lightly raced sort for his age, having had just 15 outings over fences.  His best form came in the 2011/12 season when he won three races, including the Irish National.  Last term he was pulled up in both the Hennessy and Scottish National, but returned to winning ways in February this year winning a minor contest back at Fairyhouse, the scene of his greatest success.

With plenty of younger horses that still have improvement in them in the line-up, the veterans look up against it again this year. Sticking to the trends we still need to focus on horses aged 9, 10 and 11, who account for 28 out of 35 wins in the race (80%) since Red Rum's third victory in 1977.