√ Weight under 11st 1lb
√ Rated between 138 and 153
√ Aged between eight and twelve
√ Winner over minimum of three miles, one furlong
√ Winner of a Class 1 or Class 2 chase
√ Had at least 10 runs over fences
√ Ran within the last 56 days
√ Between 3 and 6 runs since August
√ Finished placed this season
√ Placed form in a National or at Aintree / Cheltenham Festivals
Balthazar King - dual winner of the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham, current odds 20/1
Wayward Prince - winner of a Listed Chase over 3m 1f at Aintree, current odds 66/1
Teaforthree - winner of the NH Chase over 4m at Cheltenham, current odds 8/1 favourite
Across The Bay - winner of the Last Fling Chase over 3m 4f at Haydock, current odds 50/1
Double Seven - winner of the Munster National over 3m at Limerick, current odds 14/1
Lion Na Bearnai - winner of the Irish National over 3m 5f at Fairyhouse, current odds 33/1
Monbeg Dude - winner of the Welsh National over 3m 5 1/2f at Chepstow, current odds 12/1
Burton Port - winner of a Grade Two Novice Chase over 3m 1f at Aintree, current odds 20/1
Chance Du Roy - winner of the Becher Chase over 3m 2f at Aintree, current odds 33/1
Pineau De Re - winner of the Ulster National over 3m 4f at Downpatrick, current odds 20/1
Raz De Maree - winner of the Cork National over 3m 4f, current odds 50/1
As you can see there are some obvious contenders here, but equally some really interesting dark horses available at juicy prices. With winners at 33/1 twice, 66/1 and 100/1 since 2007 I certainly wouldn't discount any of them.
Strictly speaking Double Seven has question marks on the trends; he is only eight years old and his best winning form came over three miles. But with 16 runs under his belt (including four wins in double digit fields) and the assistance of AP McCoy in the saddle it would be foolish to dismiss him on age alone.
Likewise Lion Na Bearnai is outside of the ideal age range at 12 years old. However, he is a former Irish National winner and quite lightly raced for a veteran with only 15 chase runs, so it is impossible to reject him on this basis.
The only horse in this group of ten who has not had winning form in a National or at Aintree / Cheltenham is Across The Bay, although he has run with credit in many of the trial races that produce Grand National winners and has finished placed on more than one occasion at Aintree, including a third place in the Grade One Aintree Hurdle. Trained by Donald McCain, who won the Grand National with Ballabriggs in 2011, he is another who is a borderline case, but just sneaks in.
The Aintree win for Wayward Prince was in December, not at the Grand National meeting, so this should really count against him. But again, as he is proven at the course and ticks every other box he remains on the trends shortlist.
But if we return to the Staying Power section of this blog, which highlighted the stats around the six key races for the Grand National, there are four horses that stand out:
Teaforthree
Monbeg Dude
Lion Na Bearnai
Chance Du Roy
It is the form of the 2012 Welsh National that is particularly interesting, especially as Teaforthree subsequently went on to finish third in last year's race. That makes him a worthy favourite for this year's renewal, and he races off a weight that is five pounds lower than last year on 10st 12lb. He was the five star tip in last year's blog and looked likely to win before running out of steam aound the elbow. If held up a little longer this year to conserve his energy, he has every chance of improving on that placing this year.
His Chepstow conqueror, Monbeg Dude, has been aimed at this race all season and it would be great if trainer Michael Scudamore could emulate his Grandfather by winning the big race (he rode Oxo to success in 1959) and get one up on his father Peter who never managed to add the National to his illustrious CV. He looks to have had the ideal preparation and races off a nice weight of 10st 9lb. He will have the assistance of Paul Carberry in the saddle, who won this race on board Bobbyjo in 1999.
Chance Du Roy has largely been forgotten since winning the Becher Chase over these famous fences in the autumn. Trained by Philip Hobbs, who had a tremendous Cheltenham Festival, he beat several of Saturday's rivals including Mr Moonshine, Swing Bill, Across The Bay, Rose Of The Moon and Pineau De Re that day. The Becher Chase was won by two Grand National winners in the last decade, Amberleigh House and Silver Birch (as well as dual placed horse Clan Royal), so this form cannot be ignored.
An honourable mention must also go to Balthazar King, who has looked better than ever in Cross Country Chases this season. He won the event at Cheltenham where Silver Birch finished runner up prior to success at Aintree. Although he could only finish 15th in last year's race and would ideally prefer faster ground than he's likely to get on Saturday, he is one of only ten horses entered that have winning form over long distances (over 3m 4f).
Those would be my top four picks on all of the known trends, but later on today I will also post my personal selections, so we'll see how they compare to the shortlist!
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