The Place To Be

Form Figures (part two)

The next aspect of form we need to look at is how a horse has been performing so far this season. Auroras Encore was the first horse since I have been writing this bulletin to have won the Grand National without finishing placed at some point prior to Aintree, so was very much the exception to the rule.

The 2014 Grand National winner will almost certainly have finished in the first three at least once during the current campaign, preferably with a win to their name – and ideally with between three and six runs in total since August.

Every winner since 1990 had finished in the first three during the course of the season leading up to Aintree - and it was on at least one of their previous three runs. In fact, in the last 16 years only three horses (including Auroras Encore) have finished in the first three in the National having failed to get in the frame in any of their previous four starts.

It's worth reminding ourselves of the form figures for every Grand National winner since 1990:

Auroras Encore - P45F5
Neptune Collonges - P422
Ballabriggs - 112
Don't Push It - 423P
Mon Mome - 218278
Comply Or Die - 0P21
Silver Birch - 38242
Numbersixvalverde - 84B443
Hedgehunter - 924061
Amberleigh House - 342P5
Monty's Pass - 31364
Bindaree - 753367
Red Marauder - 14552F
Papillon - 875493
Bobbyjo - 580541
Earth Summit - 55165
Lord Gyllene - 231112
Rough Quest - F22F12
Royal Athlete - 3625
Miinnehoma - 17
Party Politics - 2255
Seagram - 3292131
Mr Frisk - 413354

As these figures demonstrate, winning form is not essential, but placed form certainly is. Although only six Grand National heroes since 2000 had visited the winner's enclosure prior to success at Aintree, all bar Auroras Encore had performed creditably by finishing in the frame at least once that season.  In fact 11 out of 13 winners had been placed more than once that season, underlining how important season form can be.

So it is still safe to reject the following group of six horses who have failed to show the prerequisite level of form so far this season:

Quito De La Roque
Walkon
Our Father
Vesper Bell
Shakalakaboombooom
Last Time D'Albain
Swing Bill

It might be ruthless, but you must have had a place to get in this race!

In the final part of our assessment of form figures we'll review the number of season runs and examine exactly when each contender had their final prep race for Aintree.