Born To Run

Form Figures (part three)

In our final evaluation of current form, we need to review the number of runs a horse has had in the build-up to the Grand National and when they had their last race.

Too few runs and a horse may not have had the ideal preparation for Aintree, but too many miles on the clock and a horse may not have enough petrol left in the tank required for the marathon trip.

Every winner in the last 20 years (since Miinnehoma's unusual two race preparation in 2004) had run between three and six times since the start of August - and all had run in the previous 56 days.

This is a tricky one, as more and more horses are being kept under wraps until the Grand National weights are released to protect their handicap mark.  Combined with this, the very wet winter has resulted in soft or heavy going most of the season and therefore limited the potential to get runs in on for horses that need good ground.

As a result, we have to treat this trend with a certain amount of caution and some flexibility may be required. While you would not necessarily dismiss a horse for this reason alone, it is certainly another negative that counts against their chances.

Horses with too few runs

Rocky Creek - 2 runs

Walkon - 2 runs

Big Shu - 2 runs

Golan Way - 2 runs

The Package - 1 run

Rose Of The Moon - 2 runs

Swing Bill - 2 runs

Horses that have not run within last 56 days

Rocky Creek - 70 days

Battle Group - 105 days

Prince De Beauchene - 79 days

Mountainous - 63 days

The Rainbow Hunter - 70 days

Vesper Bell - 72 days

Rose Of The Moon - 74 days

Alvarado - 94 days

It would be ridiculous to dismiss a horse's chances purely based on an extra week or so, so I would probably extend the 56 day rule to two months.  But clearly if a horse has not been seen on a racecourse for ten weeks or more the chances are they may have had an interrupted preparation and / or may not be fit enough to do themselves justice.

A number of the horses on both lists above have now been disqualified on at least two of the trends. In fact there are now very few horses that haven't been mentioned in one way or another... We are getting closer to the final shortlist - and unsurprisingly there is less than a dozen potential qualifiers for this year's race.