National Treasure

Staying Power (part three)

One of the most startling statistics to have come out of the 'Staying Power' section of this blog each year is just how many winners of the race have previously run in the Grand National, Welsh National, Scottish National, Irish National or Hennessy Gold Cup (an incredible 83% since 1990).

Fifteen of the last 21 Grand National winners had either finished placed over the famous Aintree fences (including the Becher Chase as well as the National itself) or had a top-six finish in one of these major trial races. Two of the exceptions had at least run in these contests, while two more won other 'National' races. Only Ballabriggs and Don't Push It really buck this trend - and they had both won valuable handicap chases at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals respectively the previous season.

Last year's result proved this point most emphatically with the 1-2-3-4 all having relevant form: Auroras Encore was 2nd in the 2012 Scottish National, Cappa Bleu was 3rd in the 2011 Welsh National (and 4th in the 2012 Grand National), while Teaforthree was 2nd in the 2012 Welsh National and Oscar Time 2nd in the 2011 Grand National.

These staying chases might just prove to be the key to unlocking the secret of this year's race too, so it's well worth paying close attention to the horses that qualify on this particular trend:

2013 Grand National
3rd - Teaforthree
6th - Swing Bill
14th - Across The Bay
15th - Balthazar King
Unseated rider - The Rainbow Hunter and Colbert Station
Pulled up - Mr Moonshine and Lost Glory

2012 Grand National
9th - Shakalakaboomboom
10th - Swing Bill

2013 Welsh National
1st - Mountainous
2nd - Hawkes Point
3rd - Tidal Bay
4th - One In A Milan
6th - Vintage Star
8th - Goonyella
9th - Teaforthree

2012 Welsh National
1st - Monbeg Dude
2nd - Teaforthree
7th - Across The Bay

2013 Scottish National
Pulled up - Lion Na Bearnai

2012 Scottish National
Pulled up - Walkon

2013 Irish National
Pulled up - Goonyella

2012 Irish National
1st - Lion Na Bearnai

2013 Hennessy Gold Cup
1st - Triolo D'Alene
2nd - Rocky Creek
7th - Our Father
13th - Prince De Beauchene

2012 Hennessy Gold Cup
2nd - Tidal Bay
4th - The Package
6th - Teaforthree
Pulled up - Lion Na Bearnai

2013 Becher Chase
1st - Chance Du Roy
3rd - Mr Moonshine
5th - Swing Bill
8th - Across The Bay
10th - Rose Of The Moon
Fell - Vesper Bell

2012 Becher Chase
4th - Swing Bill

It is unlikely that the Scottish and Irish Nationals will have any bearing on the outcome of this year's big race at Aintree, but the Welsh National and Hennessy Gold Cup, as well as the Grand National itself, look to be the key races to focus on. My gut instinct tells me that the results of the last two Welsh Nationals may prove most significant in pinpointing this year's Aintree hero.

There may be 24 different horses listed above in the current field of 40 (plus the first two reserves), but when you overlay the key statistic above you are left with a group of just ten horses:

Tidal Bay
Triolo D'Alene
Rocky Creek
Mr Moonshine
Teaforthree
Monbeg Dude
Mountainous
Chance Du Roy
Hawkes Point
Lion Na Bearnai

Swing Bill and Across The Bay should probably remain in contention due to appearing regularly in the contests listed above, although they tend to be found wanting at the business end of these staying chases. Across The Bay has at least won over 3m 4f this season, although he could only finish 14th in the 2013 Grand National.  Balthazar King also disappointed in the big race last year, finishing one place further behind in 15th, but he comes to Aintree in superb form, including a win over 3m 7f at the Cheltenham Festival last time out, and therefore is still in the reckoning.

Prince De Beauchene, Our Father, The Rainbow Hunter, Vintage Star and The Package are all worthy of consideration on form, but they have yet to truly prove themselves as capable of competing beyond three miles, two and a half furlongs, so question marks remain over their stamina.

We will return to this section when drawing up the trends shortlist, but it's safe to say that a number of these horses will feature prominently when it comes to making the final selection!