The Lightweights

One of the paradoxes of the Grand National has traditionally been that while you don't want too much weight, you don't want too little either! Horses at the other end of the handicap mostly lack the class and proven ability that is needed to win the Grand National.

Shock results actually occur more frequently that you may think - but when they do happen (Royal Athlete in 1995, Red Marauder in 2001, Silver Birch in 2007, Mon Mome in 2009, Neptune Collonges in 2012 and Auroras Encore last year all won at odds of 33/1 or bigger) they tend to be horses that had previously shown decent form at the highest level, but for one reason or another had fallen out of favour.

Although Auroras Encore had to carry just 10st 3lb last year, only three horses have won the Grand National with less weight than this since Rubstic landed the race in 1979.  Little Polveir (1987), Lord Gyllene (1997) and Bobbyjo (1999) all won carrying the minimum weight, but crucially all of this trio were rated 142 or more.  The last 14 winners since the turn of the century have all won carrying at least 10st 3lb or more.

Gone are the days when a third of the field would run from out of the handicap. Since 2004 all horses have run off their correct handicap mark in all bar the last two renewals, making the race much more competitive.

Between 2008 and 2010 the bottom weight was between 10st 5lb and 10st 7lb; effectively making the race more of a limited handicap.  This is one of the reasons that horses carrying 11st or more found it easier to carry bigger weights to finish in the places in these years.  In the last 30 years only Neptune Collonges has won the Grand National carrying more than a stone higher than the lowest weight.

However, in 2011 the bottom weight was 10st 2lb, while horses ran off the minimum of 10 stone in 2012 and 2013, so again this highlights how patterns are constantly shifting.  Based on the number of withdrawals at the five day declaration stage in previous years it looks like the bottom weight will be around 10st 1lb or 10st 2lb this year

Horse number 40 is currently Once In A Milan, rated 139 (two pounds higher than last year's winner), so we cannot actually discount any horse this year based on rating alone.  But if we make 10st 3lb the cut off point, which accounts for 90% of Grand National winners since 1983 (only three have won under this weight in the last 30 years), we should avoid the following four horses at the bottom end of the handicap:

Alvarado
Last Time D'Albain
One In A Milan
Swing Bill

All of this quartet are set to carry 10st 2lb or less and are rated 139 or below.  This would therefore not necessarily be enough to dismiss their chances entirely (learning an expensive lesson from last year!), but apart from Alvarado none of these really have good enough form this season to win the race. Alvarado has at least won over three miles, three and a half furlongs, so stamina could be his forte, but crucially he has not run for 94 days.

So we will add these four to our trends scrapheap!

The Heavyweights

There are strong indications in recent years that weight is not the major inconvenience that it once was.  Perhaps this is in part due to the softening of the fences, but more likely the compressing of the handicap by Phil Smith is the major factor.

Nevertheless, it still takes some horse to carry a welter burden around the four mile, three furlong trip of the Grand National.  Many have tried, but very few have succeeded.  In fact, Red Rum remains the only horse to have carried more than 11-7 to victory in the National in the post war era (not once, but twice - winning under 12 stone and 11st 8lb).

Two winners in the 1950s were successful under 11-7 (Royal Tan and Sundrew), but 2012 winner Neptune Collonges on 11-6 became the first horse since Rummy to win the Grand National with more than 11-5 on his back.  The fact remains that horses right at the top of the handicap will always struggle to give so much weight away over such a marathon distance.

Since 1984 a total of 147 horses have carried 11st 2lb or more - and all of them apart from Don't Push It and Neptune Collonges failed.  While we need to bear in mind that 19 of the 24 placed horses in the past five years carried 11 stone or more this is still a pretty compelling statistic.

As the list below illustrates, 84 horses have carried 11-7 or more in the Grand National since 1980. Despite some valiant weight carrying performances to finish in the places (often by previous winners or horses that had run well in the race before), none of them won the ultimate prize.

2013
Imperial Commander 11-10 pulled up at 11/1
What A Friend pulled up at 33/1.
Weird Al 11-8 pulled up at 66/1
Quel Esprit 11-7 pulled up at 40/1

2012
Ballabriggs 11-9 6th at 12/1
Weird Al 11-8 fell 4 out at 28/1
Synchronised 11-10 fell 6th at 10/1

2011
Don't Push It 11-10 3rd at 9/1
Tidal Bay 11-9 UR 10th at 28/1

2010
Madison Du Berlais 11-10 fell 19th at 50/1
Mon Mome 11-7 fell 26th at 14/1

2009
Snowy Morning 11-8 9th at 33/1
Chelsea Harbour 11-8 fell 3rd at 40/1
Knowhere 11-7 PU 25th at 50/1
Cloudy Lane 11-10 UR 15th at 50/1

2008
Hi Cloy 11-12 11th at 100/1
Hedgehunter 11-12 13th at 10/1
Mr Pointment 11-11 PU last at 25/1
Turko 11-10 fell 25th at 33/1
Madison Du Berlais 11-9 fell 8th at 66/1
Simon 11-7 UR 25th at 11/1
Knowhere 11-11 UR 25th at 66/1

2007
Hedgehunter 11-12 9th at 9/1
L'Ami 11-8 10th at 14/1
Eurotrek 11-8 PU 22nd at 16/1

2006
Hedgehunter 11-12 2nd at 5/1
It Takes Time 11-8 PU 3 out at 50/1
Royal Auclair 11-12 fell 1st at 33/1
Le Roi Miguel 11-7 PU 19th at 150/1
Cornish Rebel 11-9 PU 19th at 22/1
Therealbandit 11-9 PU 27th at 50/1

2005
Royal Auclair 11-10 2nd at 40/1
Le Coudray 11-12 PU 21st at 33/1

2004
Monty's Pass 11-10 4th at 20/1
Kingsmark 11-7 9th at 66/1
Alexander Banquet 11-8 fell 18th at 100/1
Le Coudray 11-12 fell 22nd at 28/1
What's Up Boys 11-9 BD 6th at 25/1
Artic Jack 11-7 fell 1st at 20/1

2003
Behrajan 11-12 10th at 22/1
Fadalko 11-7 UR 6th at 100/1
Shotgun Willy 11-9 PU 21st at 7/1
Gingembre 11-9 PU 24th at 14/1

2002
Kingsmark 11-9 4th at 16/1
Marlborough 11-12 fell 1st at 20/1
Alexander Banquet 11-11 UR 6th at 22/1

2001
Beau 11-10 UR 20th at 12/1

2000
Djeddah 11-8 9th at 16/1
Suny Bay 11-12 13th at 66/1
Young Kenny 12-0 fell 10th at 14/1
Escartefigue 11-9 UR last at 50/1

1999
Suny Bay 11-13 13th at 12/1

1998
Suny Bay 12-0 2nd at 11/1

1997
Master Oats 11-10 5th at 25/1

1996
Young Hustler 11-7 5th at 8/1

1995
Master Oats 11-10 7th at 5/1

1994
Quirinus 11-10 UR 15th at 250/1
Run For Free 11-7 REF 17th at 25/1

1992
Twin Oaks 11-7 5th at 9/1

1991
Bonanza Boy 11-7 5th at 13/2
Fraze 11-10 PU 18th at 100/1

1990
Bonanza Boy 11-9 16th at 16/1

1989
The Thinker 11-10 3rd at 10/1

1988
West Tip 11-7 4th at 11/1

1987
West Tip 11-7 4th at 5/1F
Bewley's Hill 12-0 BD at 100/1
Valencio 12-00 Fell at 500/1

1986
Essex 12-0 PU at 100/1
Corbiere 11-7 Fell at 14/1

1985
Corbiere 11-10 3rd at 9/1
Drumlargan 11-8 PU at 8/1

1984
Corbiere 12-0 3rd at 16/1
Grittar 11-10 10th at 12/1
Ashley House 11-13 Fell at 20/1

1983
Grittar 11-12 5th at 6/1
Venture To Cognac 11-12 8th at 28/1
Tacroy 11-9 PU at 33/1
Spartan Missile 11-7 UR at 9/1

1982
Royal Mail 11-10 Fell at 17/2
Aldaniti 11-9 Fell at 12/1
Again The Same 11-8 PU at 16/1
Carrow Boy 11-7 Fell at 40/1

1981
Royal Mail 11-7 3rd at 16/1
Chumson 11-7 Fell at 50/1

So what does this mean for this year's renewal?  Well there are actually five very well fancied contenders on 11st 5lb or more, all rated 156 or higher.  Neptune Collonges aside, and despite the best endeavours of the handicapper to favour them, there is little evidence to suggest that this group of horses that head the field will be able to defy the weights they have been allocated.

On all known trends we have to discount the following famous five:

Tidal Bay - 11st 10lb, rated 161
Long Run, 11st 9lb, rated 160
Hunt Ball, 11st 7lb, rated 158
Triolo D'Alene, 11st 6lb, rated 157
Rocky Creek, 11st 5lb, rated 156

This select group includes a former Gold Cup winner, a Lexus Chase winner, another Cheltenham Festival winner and the first and second in this year's Hennessy Gold Cup!  And all five are trained by two of the best handlers in the game, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson.  So they are not to be dismissed lightly, especially as four of them currently feature in the first eight in the betting!

However, there are good reasons why each of them will not win on the trends, apart from weight and rating. Tidal Bay is just too old now at 13 and Sergeant Murphy was the last horse of that age to win back in 1923. Hunt Ball has not won over further than two and a half miles and would appear to have no chance of lasting the trip. Triolo D'Alene is still too young at just seven years old, while Rocky Creek is too inexperienced with just seven chase runs to date.

Long Run is arguably the only one that is potentially interesting, although his best years look to be behind him. He may have won an egg and spoon contest at Kelso last time out, but otherwise his form this season has been very disappointing.  Add into the mix Nicky Henderson's poor record in the race (16 of his 17 runners in the race since 1992 have failed to complete!) and his trio are readily opposed.

The record of Paul Nicholls is actually not that much better; although Neptune Collonges broke his Grand National hoodoo in 2012, that remains his only success in 56 attempts, with only 27% of his runners completing the course.

So that's five down, just 35 more to go!

A Weighty Issue

One of the thorniest issues for trends followers in the Grand National is the question of weight.  As has already been highlighted above, the pendulum has swung one way, then another - and it is impossible to be complacent about whether the long held belief that the race favours lightweights still holds true.

Back in the 70s and 80s it was commonplace to see horses lumping big weights to victory at Aintree. Red Rum, L'Escargot, Rag Trade, Ben Nevis, Aldaniti, Grittar, Corbiere, West Tip, Maori Venture and Rhyme N' Reason all carried 10st 11lb or more - and four of them had a burden of 11st 3lb plus.

But since 1989, the trends shifted dramatically towards the light weighted horses at the bottom of the handicap - and it stayed that way for the best part of 20 years.

The first sign that we could be seeing a return to the form of the old days was when the classy Hedgehunter won under 11st 1lb in 2005. Although this initially looked like a blip, four of the last five National heroes have now also carried 11 stone or more.

In fact, the 11lb margin between 10 stone 9lb and 11st 6lb accounts for nine of the last 14 winners. But it is when we look beyond the winner that we get the biggest illustration that this is a new pattern being established and not merely a statistical blip.

All bar two of the 24 placed horses in the last six Grand Nationals were allocated 10st 9lb or more. Thirteen of these carried weights of 11 stone or more - clear evidence that the compressing of the handicap is favouring the heavyweights (who are theoretically 'well in') compared to those horses at the bottom of the handicap.

Here are the stark results for the last five years:

2008 - 11 out of the first 13 horses to finish carried 10st 10lb or more
2009 - 7 out of the first 10 horses to finish carried 10st 13lb or more
2010 - 10 out of the first 12 horses to finish carried 10st 11lb or more
2011 - 7 out of the first 12 horses to finish carried 10st 12lb or more
2012 - 5 out of the first 9 horses to finish carried 10st 10lb or more
2013 - 6 out of the first 10 horses to finish carried 10st 8lb or more

OK, so the last two renewals are more inconclusive - especially with Aurora's Encore victory last year.  In fact the last two winners would have been racing off light weights of just 10st 3lb and 10st 5lb had Sunnyhillboy managed to hold off the challenge of Neptune Collonges in 2012.

Regardless of this we have to acknowledge that weight is not the dominant factor that it once was. Nevertheless, my favoured weight band has always been around the 10st 7lb to 11st mark - in other words, just enough class, but not too much weight - and nine out of the 16 horses placed in the last four years have fallen into this range (56%).

So perhaps we shouldn't be so obsessed with high or low when it comes to looking at the Grand National weights, but concentrate on the middle of the handicap to find the most likely winner...

The New Rules

Trends from 1983 to 2013

Despite the ten year dip in the quality of the Grand National from 1999 to 2008, the following statistics can still be applied to at least 90% of winners of the big race in the last thirty years (since 1984):

• All winners were aged between 8 and 12 (only three 8YO & three 12YO) (100%)
• All winners had winning form over 3 miles or more (100%)
• All bar two winners had won a chase contested by 10+ runners (93%)
• All bar two winners had an Official Rating of between 136 and 154 (93%)
• All bar three winners carried 11 stone 1lb or less to victory (90%)

The weight trends have traditionally been very strong during this period, with 25 of the last 30 winners carrying a weight of between 10st 2lb and 11st 1lb - just a 13 pound margin. However, two of the exceptions above this mark occurred in the last four years - and four of the last five Grand National victors carried 11 stone or more,

To complicate things further, Aurora's Encore carried the lowest weight of any winner last year since Bobbyjo won off the minimum weight in 1999, so we can no longer rely on what used to be the strongest trend of all.

Trends from 1994 to 2013

If we narrow this down further and look at the results from the past twenty years, the following comments apply to every single winner:

• Aged between 8 and 12 (only two 8YO and two 12YO)
• Previous winner over at least three miles
• Ran at least ten times over fences during career
• Between three and seven runs that season (since August)
• Previously won a Class 1 or Class 2 Chase
• Ran within the previous 56 days

Results in the last five years have put a blot on some other key trends, but we can still also factor in the following statistics since 1994:

• All bar one winner was officially rated 136 to 153
• All bar two winners have carried 11st 1lb or less
• All bar two winners had experience of running in a ‘National’ race of some form and / or the Hennessy Gold Cup (the exceptions are Ballabriggs and Don't Push It, again both recent winners)

On this last point, it is fascinating to note that 16 out of the last 21 Grand National winners (76%) had run in either the Irish, Welsh or Scottish equivalent at some point in their careers. Using this statistic alone would be as good a system as any for generating a shortlist of potential winners!

The Old Rules

Trends from 1975 to 1995

Like all good systems, it is important to adapt according to shifting trends. Inevitably patterns change over time and there's no point being dogmatic and sticking to a failing strategy.

When I originally started this bulletin there were a number of very strong trends that underpinned this 'system'. Aside from the freak that was Red Rum (the only horse to win more than one Grand National since Reynoldstown in 1936), there were several basic rules that applied to the majority of Grand National winners from L'Escargot in 1975 to Royal Athlete’s win in 1995.

Horses to avoid included:

• Previous winners (Red Rum the only exception)

• The favourite (Grittar the only exception)

• Any horse carrying the minimum weight of 10 stone (Rubstic and Little Polveir two exceptions)

• Any horse carrying over 11 stone 4lbs (Grittar and Red Rum again two exceptions)

• Any horse aged under 8 or over 12

• Any horse that had not won over a minimum of 3 miles

• Any horse that had not finished in the first three at some point during the season

• Any horse with less than two full season's chasing experience

• Any horse trained overseas (including Ireland)

• Any mare

A number of these statistics have no longer applied since 1995:

• Rough Quest, Earth Summit, Hedgehunter, Comply or Die and Don't Push It all started favourite

• Irish fortunes changed since the turn of the millennium, with a total of six wins since 1999

• Bobbyjo and Lord Gyllene both won the race from out of the handicap (carrying minimum weight)

• Lord Gyllene, Binderee and Don't Push It were only in their second season of chasing

• Red Marauder and Bindaree had both never previously won over further than 3 miles

But Bobbyjo's victory in 1999 really became the turning point, marking the start of a decade where there was a decline in the quality of winners.  In 2002 Bindaree became the lowest rated winner since Foinavon - and from 1999 until 2008 all ten winners were rated between 136 and 144 (incredibly seven of them between 138 and 140 - just a narrow three pound margin).

This fall in the ratings of winners since the turn of the century was arrested with Mon Mome's victory in 2009 (despite being priced at 100/1 the horse was actually rated 148) and for four years the race reverted back to type by producing classier winners.

In 2010 Don't Push It (on 153 and carrying 11 stone 5lb) became the first horse since 1996 to win on a mark of greater than 150. Minnehoma and Rough Quest are the only other two horses to have won above this level since 1990 - and crucially they carried relatively light weights on just 10 stone 8lbs and 10 stone 7lbs respectively.

In 2011 Ballabriggs won off a weight of 11 stone and a mark of 150, while 2012 winner Neptune Collonges carried 11 stone 6lb to victory - the highest weight bearing performance since Red Rum's third victory in 1977.

Four of the last five winners all carried 11 stone or over and were rated between 148 and 156.  In the 2012 renewal three of the first four horses home carried weights of 10st 10lb or more.  It was even more marked the previous year, with six out of the first seven above 10st 9lb - five of them on 10st 13lb or more.  Remarkably, in 2010 nine out of the first ten horses carried 10st 11lb or more - and it was seven out of ten the previous year.

The compressing of the handicap and softening of the fences has definitely given the quality horses carrying big weights a much better chance of winning.  Despite the fact that Auroras Encore won off a mark of 137 and a light weight of 10st 3lb, it is perhaps more notable that the placed horses 2nd, 3rd and 4th were all on 10st 11lb or over, rated 145 and above.

In fact, in the last six years since Comply Or Die's victory in 2008, a total of 19 out of the 24 placed horses (i.e. in the first four to finish) carried 10st 10lb or more.  So much for the race favouring light weights - the traditional trends have been well and truly blown out of the window in recent years!

Trend Busting Encore?

So the big question is, will the trends be busted again this year?

The 2012 Grand National was a disastrous result for followers of this blog for many reasons. Neptune Collonges carried the highest weight of any winner since Red Rum in 1977. On an official mark of 157, he was also the highest rated winner since Maori Venture in 1987. He was only the second French bred horse to win since 1909 (Mon Mome being the other in 2009) and also the first grey horse to be victorious in the National since Nicolaus Silver in 1961! Aged 11 years old, he was the first horse of that age to win since Red Marauder in 2001 - and only the second since Miinnehoma back in 1994.

It would have been another story entirely had our selection Sunnyhillboy prevailed in that photo finish, but that now has to be consigned to racing history.

The bad luck continued last year when Auroras Encore denied two of the horses on the shortlist, Cappa Bleu and Teaforthree, who could only manage 2nd and 3rd place respectively.

But was that such a trend busting performance as it first appeared?  Yes, the horse was a barely considered 66/1 shot, yet with the benefit of hindsight we can see that Auroras Encore ticked many of the traditional trends boxes:

√ Carried under 11st 1lb (10st 3lb)
X Rated between 138 and 153 (rated 137)
√ Aged between nine and eleven (aged 11)
√ Winner over three miles plus (won over 3m 1f)
√ Winner of a Class 1 or Class 2 chase (Class 1)
√ Had at least 10 runs over fences (23 races)
√ Ran within the last 49 days (35 days)
√ Between 3 and 6 runs since August (5 runs)
X Finished placed this season (best 4th)
√ Placed form in a National or at Aintree / Cheltenham Festivals (2nd in Scottish National)

So apart from the fact that he was rated one pound below the trends band and had no real form running up to the race (on unsuitably soft ground), in many respects he was actually a typical winner.

On the ratings, Auroras Encore on 137 was very much in line with the Grand National results from 1999 to 2008, when all ten winners were rated between 136 and 144.  In fact eight of them in this period were rated 136 to 140 - just a narrow four pound margin.

It is only very recently that classier horses started to win the race again (largely due to the leniency of the handicapper in artificially compressing the weights).

Moreover, the first four horses home all had form in Nationals of one kind or another: Auroras Encore was 2nd in the 2012 Scottish National, Cappa Bleu was 3rd in the 2011 Welsh National (and 4th in the 2012 Grand National), while Teaforthree was 2nd in the 2012 Welsh National and Oscar Time 2nd in the 2011 Grand National.

This is what should have caused us to sit up and take notice.  As we see time and time again in the Grand National stamina is everything.  Of the 11 horses in last year's race to have won or been placed over distances of three and a half miles plus, four of them filled the 1-2-3-4 finishing positions! 

Auroras Encore had also fallen five times previously in his racing career, which is most unusual in a Grand National winner (normally no more than three career falls maximum is the rule).  But as I underlined in the introduction, this race is now no longer about jumping ability (and Auroras certainly clattered through a few obstacles last year), so we will be giving added weight to staying power this year.

Introduction

Welcome to the 23rd edition of my annual Grand National bulletin.

I'm late getting going so it will be a shortened version this year, with daily updates provided from today's five day entry stage through to the day of the big race this weekend.

I’ve been writing this Grand National trends preview for most of my adult life.  What originally started as a print out for friends and family expanded into a wider e-mail distribution and in recent years it has taken on a life of its own with this blog.

My obsession with the Grand National started when I was very young.  Picking the winner seemed so easy back then; I backed Aldaniti, Grittar, Hello Dandy, West Tip and Rhyme N’ Reason all before the age of sixteen!  Then after I correctly predicted the 1-2-3 in the 1990 Grand National won by Mr Frisk many friends were clamouring for my tips every year. And so the annual bulletin was born, with great success initially - highlighting the chances of every winner from 1992 to 1998.

But I very nearly didn’t bother writing it this year, as the magic of the great race is starting to wear off a little.  Some might say that is due to me only predicting one winner in the last five years, which is probably partially true (!), but it is actually more to do with the changing nature of the race itself.

Horse welfare has to be paramount and it is only right that every possible measure has been taken to ensure the safety of runners and riders in the race.  But in doing so, the essence of the race may well have changed irrevocably.  As a result, I’m just not convinced that the trends that have served us so well over the years are going to be as relevant any more.

The lasting impression of the 2013 renewal was the ‘parting of the waves’ as each fence simply fell apart.  The new fence cores are a great innovation in terms of making the race so much safer for horses, but the fact remains that Grand National is no longer the test of jumping that it once was.  A test of stamina, yes, but there is no way that a bad jumper like Auroras Encore (with six previous falls) could have taken such liberties with the fences in previous years and still won the great race.

That might sound like sour grapes, but it’s not at all.  Predicting the winner has just become much more difficult – winners at 100/1, 66/1 and 33/1 twice in the last six years is testament to that.  The basic premise of this annual bulletin was that the Grand National was not, contrary to popular belief, a lottery; and that a series of very strong trends helped to pinpoint the victor each year by producing a shortlist of potential winners.

Now I am no longer sure that this is the case.  The race is more unpredictable, competitive and wide open than ever before.  Nevertheless, buoyed by the requests from many faithful followers (for which I am very grateful), I will venture once more unto the breach in an attempt to solve the puzzle that is the Grand National.

Although Ballabriggs is the only winner for this bulletin in recent years, it has still successfully highlighted the chances of 14 out of the last 22 Grand National heroes – so not a bad strike rate overall!  And there have been a series of frustrating near misses along the way too, most notably Sunnyhillboy failing by a nose in the closest ever finish to the race in 2012.

The good news is that the trends have rarely failed to produce at least one or two placed horses – and despite the shock result last year, we still had the 2^nd and 3^rd in Cappa Bleu and Teaforthree.

The likes of Don’t Push It, Auroras Encore and Neptune Collonges may have proven to be trends busters in recent years, but we will still apply as many of the statistics as possible to produce a shortlist of potential candidates for this year’s race.

I hope you enjoy reading the blog – and if you do have a flutter this weekend, good luck!