The Old Rules

Trends from 1975 to 1995

Like all good systems, it is important to adapt according to shifting trends. Inevitably patterns change over time and there's no point being dogmatic and sticking to a failing strategy.

When I originally started this bulletin there were a number of very strong trends that underpinned this 'system'. Aside from the freak that was Red Rum (the only horse to win more than one Grand National since Reynoldstown in 1936), there were several basic rules that applied to the majority of Grand National winners from L'Escargot in 1975 to Royal Athlete’s win in 1995.

Horses to avoid included:

• Previous winners (Red Rum the only exception)

• The favourite (Grittar the only exception)

• Any horse carrying the minimum weight of 10 stone (Rubstic and Little Polveir two exceptions)

• Any horse carrying over 11 stone 4lbs (Grittar and Red Rum again two exceptions)

• Any horse aged under 8 or over 12

• Any horse that had not won over a minimum of 3 miles

• Any horse that had not finished in the first three at some point during the season

• Any horse with less than two full season's chasing experience

• Any horse trained overseas (including Ireland)

• Any mare

A number of these statistics have no longer applied since 1995:

• Rough Quest, Earth Summit, Hedgehunter, Comply or Die and Don't Push It all started favourite

• Irish fortunes changed since the turn of the millennium, with a total of six wins since 1999

• Bobbyjo and Lord Gyllene both won the race from out of the handicap (carrying minimum weight)

• Lord Gyllene, Binderee and Don't Push It were only in their second season of chasing

• Red Marauder and Bindaree had both never previously won over further than 3 miles

But Bobbyjo's victory in 1999 really became the turning point, marking the start of a decade where there was a decline in the quality of winners.  In 2002 Bindaree became the lowest rated winner since Foinavon - and from 1999 until 2008 all ten winners were rated between 136 and 144 (incredibly seven of them between 138 and 140 - just a narrow three pound margin).

This fall in the ratings of winners since the turn of the century was arrested with Mon Mome's victory in 2009 (despite being priced at 100/1 the horse was actually rated 148) and for four years the race reverted back to type by producing classier winners.

In 2010 Don't Push It (on 153 and carrying 11 stone 5lb) became the first horse since 1996 to win on a mark of greater than 150. Minnehoma and Rough Quest are the only other two horses to have won above this level since 1990 - and crucially they carried relatively light weights on just 10 stone 8lbs and 10 stone 7lbs respectively.

In 2011 Ballabriggs won off a weight of 11 stone and a mark of 150, while 2012 winner Neptune Collonges carried 11 stone 6lb to victory - the highest weight bearing performance since Red Rum's third victory in 1977.

Four of the last five winners all carried 11 stone or over and were rated between 148 and 156.  In the 2012 renewal three of the first four horses home carried weights of 10st 10lb or more.  It was even more marked the previous year, with six out of the first seven above 10st 9lb - five of them on 10st 13lb or more.  Remarkably, in 2010 nine out of the first ten horses carried 10st 11lb or more - and it was seven out of ten the previous year.

The compressing of the handicap and softening of the fences has definitely given the quality horses carrying big weights a much better chance of winning.  Despite the fact that Auroras Encore won off a mark of 137 and a light weight of 10st 3lb, it is perhaps more notable that the placed horses 2nd, 3rd and 4th were all on 10st 11lb or over, rated 145 and above.

In fact, in the last six years since Comply Or Die's victory in 2008, a total of 19 out of the 24 placed horses (i.e. in the first four to finish) carried 10st 10lb or more.  So much for the race favouring light weights - the traditional trends have been well and truly blown out of the window in recent years!